24 May 2005, 16:15  The OECD said monetary policy had actively supported global economic recovery

The OECD said monetary policy had actively supported global economic recovery in its initial stages but several central banks had since begun to raise interest rates from the exceptionally low levels plumbed during the course of the downturn. It warned against premature rate increases. "The U.S. Federal Reserve ... is set to continue to bring its policy rates up toward neutrality. In contrast, no monetary tightening is assumed in Japan in the near term, and easing is built in for the euro area," its report said. Its U.S. growth forecasts, of 3.6 percent for 2005 and 3.3 percent for 2006, are based on the assumption that the Federal Funds target rate will continue to increase "incrementally" to reach 4.75 percent around mid-2006 from its current 3.0 percent. The OECD expects the ECB, which sets monetary policy for the dozen countries that share the euro, to lift interest rates to 2.25 percent by late 2006. It assumes Japan's rates will remain at zero through the end of 2006 while British interest rates, which have already been raised by 1.25 percentage points from their July 2003 low, are expected to stay unchanged at 4.75 percent. The OECD said UK rates were close to, if not already around, neutral.

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