18 May 2005, 12:22  Australian economic growth is expected to slow in the fiscal year

Australian economic growth is expected to slow in the fiscal year to the end of June to its weakest pace in four years, under pressure from a growing current account deficit. Š•conomists forecast gross domestic product would grow a median 2.1 percent in 2004/05, a rate below the five-year average of 3.4 percent and lower than 3.0 percent forecast in a similar poll in January. GDP forecasts for the 2005/06 fiscal year were also cut to 3.0 percent from 3.4 percent. The Australian government made similar adjustments to its growth outlook in it 2005/06 budget on May 10. "Export shipments being low and import demand still quite high, would have seen forecasts cut," said David de Garis, senior treasury economist at ANZ Investment Bank. The export/import divide has seen the current account deficit broaden to record levels around seven percent of GDP. But economists see the gap narrowing in 2005/2006 as port facilities improve. Economists upgraded their inflation forecasts for 2004/05 and 2005/06, but expect the rate to remain within the central bank's target range of 2 percent to 3 percent. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its official cash rate for the first time in over year in March to 5.5 percent, citing risks to inflation from high wage demands in a labour market with the lowest jobless rate in 28 years. The central bank has said its concerns about the outlook for inflation have receded, but it still expects to raise rates again this business cycle, although for now it indicated rates are on hold.

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