17 May 2005, 12:20  The dollar's early fall was limited by growing bullishness toward the U.S. economy

The dollar's early fall on the Japanese economic data was limited as growing bullishness toward the U.S. economy and currency prevailed. The Japanese government released data early Tuesday that showed the economy grew by a surprisingly robust 5.3 percent in annualized terms in the January-March quarter from the previous quarter. Some of the good news came because damage from natural disasters late last year depressed the results of the October-December quarter. Overall, however, improved consumer spending drove growth and offset a decline in exports, according to the Cabinet Office. Bright prospects for a nation's economy are generally positive for its currency. "Despite the strong headline figure, the GDP data components showed that most of the growth was brought on by deflation and an unexpected increase in inventories," said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. Traders, meanwhile, quickly turned their attention to the U.S. economy. The U.S. producer price index for April is due later Tuesday, while the consumer price index for the same month will be released Wednesday. "Expectations that U.S. interest rates will keep rising appear to be supporting the dollar," said Akifumi Uchida, senior foreign exchange manager at Sumitomo Trust. Some investors also felt the dollar's overnight decline on disappointing U.S. capital flows data was a bit overdone and moved to buy the currency back at Tuesday's lows, traders said. The dollar has gained in recent weeks due primarily to strong readings on U.S April payrolls and retail sales as well as a narrowing in the trade deficit for March. At the same time, expectations for an imminent revaluation of the Chinese yuan have also faded. The yuan is now virtually pegged to the dollar, and expectations for the peg to be loosened tend to weigh on the dollar while boosting other Asian currencies. "Dollar-bullish sentiment appears set to continue for the time being," said Minoru Shioiri, foreign exchange manager at Mitsubishi Securities.

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