After testing the 1.2800 figure several times since FridaysВ' NFP report, the EUR/USD bounced back to the 1.2850 area on the back of strong German Trade Balance data. Germany reported a Trade Balance surplus of В16.3B vs. estimates of ВЂ13.5B as exports 2.1% while imports declined В-1.2%. The data was a pleasant surprise amidst a seemingly endless array of disappointing results over the past two months. The German Trade Balance surplus also stands in sharp contrast to tomorrowВ's US Trade Balance deficit which is projected to remain above -$60 Billion. In fact, trading in the EUR/USD has become a battle between the strong Balance Sheet dynamics of the Euro-zone versus the high income growth of United States. FridayВ's big NFP numbers put the ball in dollar bullВ's hands, but whether they can score is still unclear. YesterdayВ's weak Wholesale Inventory release cast doubt on the strength of US demand and tomorrowВ's Trade Balance report is unlikely to offer much support either. This means that ThursdayВ's Advance Retail Sales will be the key event of the week to resolve the stalemate in the pair. For the time being that market still believes that US growth trumps European Balance Sheet strength, but if evidence of slowdown in consumer demand suddenly appears, dollar longs will have no structural support for their position and the greenback may quickly resume its slide