10 May 2005, 14:04   Hiring in Australia's robust labour market may have fallen in April

Hiring in Australia's robust labour market may have fallen in April after months of unexpected strength, although unemployment is expected to remain at a 28-year low of 5.1 percent for a fifth month. The economy has put on nearly 290,000 jobs since August, despite signs of domestic demand slowing, and having made the labour market sufficiently tight for the central bank to raise interest rates in March for fear of it stoking wage inflation. The central bank has indicated interest rates are on hold for now, although said it would not be surprised if it had to tighten policy again in the current business cycle. For April, a Reuters poll of 18 economists found a median forecast for an 18,000 employment fall, although forecasts range from a 20,000 rise to a 30,000 fall. "After the extraordinary strength in jobs growth over recent months, we expect some pull-back in employment in April ... we have been looking for a correction for some time," said ABN AMRO chief economist Kieran Davies. "A moderate fall of around 20,000 would be consistent with the softer tone in business surveys over the past couple of months, as well as mediocre retail sales outcomes." A stable unemployment rate of 5.1 percent would coincide with an expected easing in the participation rate of those in work or actively seeking employment.

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