6 December 2004, 09:21  Dollar Up, But Respite Seen Temporary

TOKYO - The dollar rose on Monday, back-tracking from record lows hit against the euro on disappointing U.S. jobs data, but traders said it was just a matter of time before the market sells the currency again.
Profit-taking on the dollar's slide was helping to support the unit against sterling and the Swiss franc, while worries that Japan could step into the market stemmed its fall against the yen.
"While the ECB (European Central Bank) is unlikely to intervene any time soon, the yen's rise should be limited on wariness over Japanese intervention," said Yoshiyasu Naruse, head of corporate forex sales at HSBC Ltd.
The dollar tumbled across the board on Friday after U.S. non-farm payrolls rose 112,000 in November, well below economists' median forecast for a rise of 180,000.
At 9:26 p.m. EST Sunday, the dollar was at around 102.10 yen, flat from late U.S. levels on Friday.
In early trade, it fell to a low of 101.91 yen, slightly above a five-year low of 101.83 hit on Thursday, before moving back up partly due to buying by Japanese importers, traders said.
The euro was slightly easier at $1.3445, versus 1.3454 in New York and a record high of 1.3461 marked on Friday.
Sterling stood at around $1.9405 after matching a 12-year peak of 1.9442 earlier in the day.
The dollar moved up to 1.1317 Swiss francs after hitting a nine-year low of 1.1301 in U.S. trade.
DOLLAR OUTLOOK DISMAL
Friday's payrolls data also showed the jobless rate was at 5.4 percent, matching forecasts.
"The jobs data brought the market's focus back to the dollar's weakness," said Kikuko Takeda, currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
"I think we should be prepared to see another round of dollar selling," she said, adding that the market would likely target a fall toward 100 yen and a rise in the euro to $1.35.
Despite the weak data, a poll taken after the figures were released found that all 20 primary dealers surveyed expected the Federal Reserve to raise its key rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.25 percent at its December meeting.
Sixteen of the 20 looked for another quarter-point tightening in February.
"The interest rate outlook isn't a factor for the market," said Takeda at Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
"The jobs data dampened sentiment for the dollar so the market will continue to focus on U.S. deficits.
The dollar also came under pressure on Friday after a German newspaper cited a high-ranking U.S. Treasury official as saying the United States would intervene to support the currency only after the euro reached $1.45.
Most Tokyo traders showed little reaction to the report, saying they were unfamiliar with the newspaper.
They added that it had little effect on the market's view that Japan would intervene should the yen rise further.(

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