8 October 2004, 09:26  Oil holds over $52 as rally pauses, frets on outges

Oil prices took time out on Friday from this week's succession of record highs, but anxiety over outages in the U.S. Gulf, Nigeria and Norway in the run-up to winter left little hope of relief for consumers. U.S. light crude traded down 28 cents at $52.39 a barrel by 0416 GMT, having peaked at $53 on Thursday, the third day in a row the market has hit an all-time high. Unexpectedly strong demand growth, particularly in China, has helped oil surge 60 percent this year, forcing top producers to pump more than at any time in the past 25 years and leaving little margin for any supply disruptions. An already stretched supply chain has been stressed by the lingering loss of U.S. production from the Gulf of Mexico and threats to Nigerian and Norwegian supplies. "It's been a heck of a run, but nothing has changed fundamentally -- we still have the same problems of limited supply and limited spare capacity," said John Brady, an energy broker at ABN AMRO in New York. "We're seeing the effects of these disruptions and how dangerous they can be," he added. Last weekend OPEC member Nigeria was spared a threat by rebels to its output of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), but it was hit on Thursday by a snap two-day oil workers strike at the facilities of top producer Royal Dutch/Shell .
The company said its output of 1 million bpd had not been affected, although a port inspector said the labour action meant loading would be put "on hold". Nigeria supplies the United States with more than 1 million bpd of the high-quality crude grades prized for their high yield of transportation and heating fuels. An unrelated general strike by the umbrella labour union looms next Monday over rising domestic fuel prices, although officials said they were not trying to hit exports. Production is also being curtailed in Norway, the world's number three exporter, where a rig workers strike will expand a the weekend to shut in around 55,000 bpd of the nation's 3 million bpd, officials say.
GULF IMPACT DRAGS ON
In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, around 475,000 bpd of production remains out of commission over three weeks after Hurricane Ivan hit the region, and operators say the outage will drag on longer. Oil major BP , which operates nearly half the lost output, said this week that it did not expect to restore full flows until the end of this month. This outage coupled with last month's refinery closures during the hurricane have made a serious dent in U.S. heating oil inventories ahead of the winter, when demand for the fuel soars in the northeast. Weekly government data showed an unexpectedly deep draw in supplies of distillates, including heating oil, which is running around six percent below this time last year. The situation is similar in major Asian and European countries. Despite this year's sustained surge in prices, officials have expressed mixed views on the potential impact on economic growth. U.S. officials have said the impact of current prices should be modest, while booming India expects to exceed its five-year energy growth forecast, a top energy official said Thursday. In Japan, the view is more cautious. "Japan's economy is recovering firmly, but one of the greatest risks is oil prices," Japanese Economics Minister Heizo Takenaka said on Friday.///

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