Oil prices pushed above $49 a barrel on Monday, approaching record levels as worries about the stability of supplies from Iraq, Nigeria and Russia compounded concerns over low fuel stocks ahead of winter. U.S. light crude climbed to a session high at $49.36 a barrel, up 48 cents and just 4 cents below the all-time intraday peak set in late August at $49.40. At 0453 GMT, U.S. oil was 38 cents higher at $49.26. Oil was driven higher last week by a big dip in U.S. oil stockpiles, at a time when inventories should be building ahead of winter months. Dealers shrugged off as too little some loans of oil to refiners from U.S. emergency stockpiles. Clashes in Saudi Arabia between security forces and suspected al Qaeda members at the weekend, along with continued attacks on oil infrastructure in Iraq, have heightened concerns over the potential for a severe disruption to Middle East crude flows.
Rebels in Nigeria, Africa's top oil exporter, said at the weekend they would extend an uprising across the country's entire oil-producing southern delta, where Royal Dutch/Shell has evacuated more than 200 staff from two oilfields due to increasing violence. And there is still uncertainty over the stability of supplies from YUKOS , Russia's top exporter, after the company's battle against bankruptcy led to hiccups in output and deliveries last week.
LITTLE ROOM FOR DISRUPTION
"All these factors create apprehension in the market and reinforces the view that we're on a knife's edge in terms of supply and demand," said Daniel Hynes, industry analyst at ANZ Bank in Melbourne. "The uncertainties heighten the risk premium applied to this market. Another move to test the $49.40 could well happen this week." The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday that non-commercial crude speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange doubled their net long positions to 26,742 in the week to Sept. 21, in a bet that oil prices would rise. That likelihood was bolstered after Hurricane Ivan thrashed through the Gulf of Mexico, delaying oil shipments and disrupting offshore production.
Global supplies are straining to meet the fastest growth in oil demand in 24 years. World crude output is close to its limits with only the top exporter, Saudi Arabia, holding any significant spare capacity of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd). The OPEC producers' cartel, which controls more than half of global crude exports, is producing almost 30 million bpd, the highest level since the late 1970s. OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said on Monday the cartel was supplying enough crude oil to the market and near-record oil prices were not due to any supply/demand imbalance. "This is because of Hurricane Ivan and some problems in other places," Purnomo told reporters. "... This is not a supply and demand problem. OPEC supply is enough," Purnomo, who is also Indonesian oil minister, told reporters in Jakarta.
NIGERIAN ATTACKS
Nigerian rebel leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari said on Sunday his militia would attack facilities and personnel of Italian firm Agip, a unit of ENI , which he accused of lending helicopters to the Nigerian military. Agip denied the allegation. Nigeria is the fifth-biggest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with an output of roughly 2.4 million bpd. The rebels want to force political reforms or gain sovereignty for the impoverished Niger delta. Last year's uprising by members of the Ijaw tribe forced the temporary closure of 40 percent of the country's output. In Iraq, insurgents fired mortar bombs at the Oil Ministry building on Saturday, causing minor damage but no injuries, in the latest attack on the country's vital industry. Engineers have fixed a main oil export pipeline in the north of the country, which has been down since it was blown up on Sept. 2, but flows through the line had yet to restart by Friday. Saboteurs attacked another pipeline feeding an oil refinery at Baiji, but so far exports through the main southern terminals appeared to be running normally at about 1.9 million bpd.///