15 September 2004, 12:20  Sterling touch softer ahead of data, BoE speakers

Sterling crept lower within recent ranges on Wednesdayahead of UK jobs data and Bank of England speakers, with investors watchful for hints about how many more UK interest rate hikes might be in the pipeline. Economists expect August unemployment date due at 0830 GMT to post a steady reading of 2.7 percent and the claimant count to show a drop of 9,000, compared with a fall of 13,700 in July. Average earnings for the three months to July are forecast up 4.3 percent versus the previous 4.4 percent. Sterling has steadied in recent days after investors scaled back expectations for higher British interest rates, hurting the pound. But, after five rate hikes since November markets suspect the end of the cycle may be near. "It appears that just another weak number or two and we are likely to see the UK money market curve price in a small probability of rate cuts next year," said Trevor Dinmore, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank. "But there is kind of a clash here, where we do have a fundamental picture that justifies a bit more sterling weakness but the technicals at this point are providing a bit of resistance and preventing sterling from weakening more."
At 0800 GMT, sterling traded a touch lower against the dollar at $1.7929 . It was also a shade weaker at 68.25 pence per euro , but still hovering above recent seven-month lows. Steve Nickell, a member of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), speaks to the National Federation of Enterprise Agencies National Conference at 1015 GMT. MPC Marian Bell addresses the Society of Business Economists at 1700 GMT. Investors will also watch for retail sales data on Thursday for clues on whether Britain's economy is slowing sufficiently for the Bank of England to step off the monetary brake.////

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