8 July 2004, 09:47  Swiss franc hold nears five-month hidg on dollar

The Swiss franc hovered near almost five-month highs on the dollar in early Thursday trade as markets continued to take a bearish view on the pace of U.S. interest rate rises and ahead of the latest Swiss jobs numbers. The dollar changed hands at 1.2281/86 francs compared with 1.2276/82 late on Wednesday in Europe, while the euro was at 1.5186/91 francs after 1.5179/84. Economists expect the jobs market data for June to confirm that the Swiss economy continues to pick up, with the jobless rate seen dipping to 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent in May. But with seasonal hiring seen as a key driver in demand for labour, they foresee no major implications for the interest rate policy of the Swiss National Bank, which last month increased key rates by a modest quarter of a percentage point. Economists at Swiss bank UBS see the franc rising to 1.14 to the dollar in the fourth quarter of this year, reflecting what they call "more restrained Fed tightening expectations". "The dollar's structural deficiencies are likely to reassert themselves in an environment where interest rate expectations are no longer shifting in the currency's favour," they said.///

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