Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy added a smaller-than- expected 112,000 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent. The increase was the largest in three years and follows a December gain of 16,000 that was more than estimated last month. The construction and retail industries added jobs in January, while factories eliminated positions. The jobless rate was the lowest in two years and down from 5.7 percent in December.
Some companies are beginning to add workers after the economy expanded in the second half of 2003 at the fastest pace in two decades. More hiring may be needed to help boost spending and lift the economy by raising incomes. Slack job growth keeps wage increases tame and gives Federal Reserve policy makers room to hold their target interest rate steady. ``The labor market is still improving, but the improvement is gradual,'' said Joseph Abate, a senior economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York, before the report. ``It's very difficult to see wage pressures building. The Fed will be on hold for the rest of the year because inflation is so muted.'' Lehman had forecast a 90,000 rise in payrolls last month. Economists had expected payrolls would rise by 175,000 last month following a previously reported increase of 1,000 in December, according to the median of 69 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They projected the unemployment rate would hold at 5.7 percent. The household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a 496,000 increase in the number of people employed, accounting for the decline in the jobless rate. The rate declined even as 422,000 people entered the labor force in January.
Services
Employment in service-producing industries, which include retailers, banks and government agencies, rose 105,000 last month after rising 32,000 in December. The increase, was led by a 76,000 increase in retail jobs. Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York, had expected a rebound in retail hiring last month because the government has trouble adjusting the numbers for seasonal variations during and after the Christmas holidays. ``Less December hiring by retailers and restaurants should translate into less January firing by these establishments, a positive swing factor,'' Soss said in a research report to clients. Soss had forecast payrolls would rise by 150,000. Manufacturers cut 11,000 jobs last month, the 42nd straight decline since August 2000. The manufacturing workweek rose to 40.9 hours from 40.6 in December and overtime held at 4.6 hours.
Federal Reserve
The smaller-than-expected payroll gain may add to Democratic party criticism heading into the November election that President George W. Bush's economic initiatives, including tax cuts and increased spending on defense and homeland security, have failed to stimulate job growth. Federal Reserve policy makers last week highlighted the disparity between weak payroll figures and other measures of employment, such as claims for unemployment insurance, that have been improving. After leaving their target interest rate at 1 percent, the lowest since 1958, policy makers said, ``although new hiring remains subdued, other indicators suggest an improvement in the labor market.'' Fed Governor Ben Bernanke said in a speech yesterday that ``as the economy continues to grow, and as firms are unable to meet that demand without hiring, we will see some increase in employment. The exact timing of that is difficult to tell, but I am pretty confident we will see some big numbers fairly soon.''
Jobless Claims
Still, policy makers can be patient with monetary policy ``over the next few months'' because a ``significant'' rise in inflation this year or next is unlikely, Bernanke said. First-time applications averaged 345,300 per week in the four weeks that correspond with the January employment survey, the fewest since February 2001, according to Labor Department figures. That compares with an average of 362,300 for the comparable period in December and 447,300 reached in the first week of May that was the highest in a year. ``We intend to expand our distribution force where the market is growing,'' said Edward Liddy, chief executive Allstate Corp., the second-biggest U.S. auto and home insurer, in a televised interview with Bloomberg News yesterday. ``But many of our agencies are also hiring support staff. So they are getting larger at the same time as we are getting larger. It's a great combination.'' The Northbrook, Illinois-based insurer said this week that fourth-quarter profit rose 70 percent as it raised prices, added customers and had investment gains. For others, it's wait-and-see.
Cisco
``After three years of being second-guessed and often missing, many CEOs are going to be unusually cautious in terms of both their capital spending and their hiring,'' said John Chambers, chief executive at Cisco Systems Inc., the world's largest maker of equipment to link computers, in a radio interview with Bloomberg News Tuesday. ``As the economy continues to gain strength and as some of their competitors start to move, then you'll see other CEOs, I think, begin to spend'' and hire, he said. ``As soon as we can get another 10 percent to 14 percent on revenue, then I will start to hire again,'' said Chambers. The San Jose, California-based company this week that second- quarter earnings fell 27 percent. Average weekly hours worked for all employees rose to 33.7 hours in January from 33.5 the prior month, today's report showed. Economists had expected hours would rise to 33.8 hours, according to the Bloomberg News survey.
Incomes
Incomes increased last month. Workers' average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent, or 2 cents, after a 0.1 percent increase the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase in hourly wages. Average weekly earnings rose to $522.01 last month from $518.25 in December. Consumers are still spending. Chain-store sales climbed 5.8 percent last month, the biggest January increase since 1999, according to a report yesterday from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Sales rose a larger-than-expected 5.7 percent at Wal-Mart and they increased 3 percent at Gap.
The Labor Department also issued its annual benchmark revisions to employment figures with this report. The economy lost 700,000 jobs since the recession ended in November 2001. That compares with a previously estimated 1.1 million before the revisions. The changes take into account adjustments to seasonal variation calculations that affected the statistics back to 1999. The report also added new information on the size of the labor force derived from the 2000 Census. Hiring gains have been hindered by a surge in productivity that's averaged 4.6 percent in the last two years, the most since 1950-1951, according to figures from the Labor Department yesterday.
Among blacks, the unemployment rate rose to 10.5 percent from 10.3 percent in December. The jobless rate for Hispanics increased to 7.3 percent from 6.6 percent and for whites it fell to 4.9 percent from 5 percent. For teenagers, unemployment rose to 16.7 percent last month from 16.1 percent. The jobless rate for women fell to 5 percent from 5.1 percent. The jobless rate for men decreased to 5.1 percent from 5.3 percent. //www.bloomberg.com