2 February 2004, 09:25  Dollar near 3-year low vs yen; BOJ action suspected

TOKYO, Feb 2 - The dollar was easier on Monday, dangling barely above last week's three-year lows against the yen amid speculation that the Group of Seven (G7) industrial countries may not agree on halting its broad-based decline. But the greenback's fall was limited and many traders suspected the Bank of Japan, which spent a record 7.15 trillion yen ($67.2 billion) to prop up the dollar in January, was intervening again on Monday. "The authorities have been intervening at a considerable pace this year, and it seems they are not going to let the dollar fall through 105 yen so easily," said Mitsuru Sahara, vice president of forex trading at UFJ Bank. "So people will be cautious during Tokyo trading hours. But that does not mean the dollar won't come under pressure again in European and U.S. hours." The dollar stood around 105.60 yen at 0326 GMT, down from around 105.75 yen late in New York on Friday and within sight of three-year lows around 105.45 yen set a week earlier. Traders suspected the BOJ was placing bids around 105.60 yen, perhaps to avoid the dollar's break below its recent low. The euro was around $1.2470 , little changed from late Friday levels. Traders were also busy speculating on the possible outcome of the meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs due to take place in Florida on Friday and Saturday.
One growing view was that the meeting would end without agreement on any strong statement aimed at halting the dollar's decline -- something Japan and some European countries were hoping for. Traders said the U.S. authorities appeared in no hurry to warn against the greenback's weakness, as the U.S. economy was benefitting from the cheaper dollar while U.S. shares have rallied recently, unscathed by the dwindling value of the dollar. Others said Japan's massive intervention could come under fire, particularly from European countries. "There are voices in Europe that say Japan and other Asian countries should shoulder more of the burden of the dollar's adjustment," said Daisuke Uno, market analyst at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. But there was also simmering speculation that the G7 heavyweights might modify their statement issued in September, for instance by dropping their calls for more flexibility in exchange rates -- rhetoric that sparked a huge sell-off of the dollar at the time. "It's hard to bet on either side ahead of such a big event as the coming G7 meeting," said Toshihiro Azuma, forex manager at Sumitomo Trust and Banking Corp. The market was also awaiting a flurry of economic data later in the day, including purchasing management indices from European countries and the U.S. Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index.//www..com

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