TOKYO, Feb 13 - Japan's trade surplus probably grew in January from the same month a year ago thanks to strong demand overseas for Japanese goods, though rising imports kept a brake on the pace of growth, a poll showed on Friday. The median forecast from 23 economists was for a 114.6 billion yen ($1.09 billion) surplus, unadjusted, up about 11.5 percent from January 2003. Exports likely rose a median 7.2 percent and imports probably gained 6.7 percent, the poll showed. Economists said this narrowing of the gap between import and export growth would hold down the pace of growth in the surplus. "The pace of export growth may have slowed from the previous month in reaction to earlier sharp rises and because of the effect of the strong yen," said Azusa Kato, economist at BNP Paribas. "Imports will rise because of a recovery in domestic production. With exports slowing a little and imports rising, the trade surplus will shrink slightly."
Kato sees a 180.4 billion yen surplus, up 75.5 percent from a year ago. Other economists noted the possibility of a trade deficit in January as strong imports and high oil prices outweighed growing exports. However, any deficit would be temporary, they said. "Both imports and exports rose, but imports may have risen more than exports because of the effect of high oil prices," said Junji Ohta, economist at Okasan Research. "Depending on imports there could easily be a trade deficit, but it should be back into surplus from February." Ohta forecasts a trade deficit of 40 billion yen. Hideki Matsumura, economist at Japan Research, noted seasonal factors such as the timing of the lunar new year holiday, which shut down businesses in major export destinations like China, as possibly leading to a deficit of 3.0 billion yen. "But there is no change in the trend of strong exports to Asia and rising imports because of a rebound in domestic output," he said. The trade surplus figures are due to be released within the next two weeks.//