11 February 2004, 12:04  OPEC Jan output down, first fall since Sep' 03 - IEA

LONDON, Feb 11 - OPEC's crude output is estimated to have fallen by 145,000 barrels per day in January to 27.9 million bpd from an upwardly revised December estimate of 28 million bpd, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. This was the first let-up in rising OPEC production since 2003 as tanker loading in the Gulf fell in the early part of January, the West's energy watchdog said. It added, however, that tanker loadings were on the rise towards the end of January and into February. Production from the OPEC 10, excluding Iraq, in January averaged 25.8 million bpd, 1.3 million bpd above the target in place since November. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has itself estimated leakage at 1.5 million bpd, which it said following a meeting in Algiers on Tuesday it would seek to eliminate immediately. The cartel also said it would cut production targets for the OPEC 10 by one million barrels per day to 23.5 million barrels a day effective April 1.
According to the IEA, January OPEC supply from Iran fell by around 100,000 bpd, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates all lowering supply by about 50,000 bpd each. Oil export disruptions following the explosion at Algeria's Skikda liquefied natural gas facility also saw a 20,000 bpd decline in crude supply there. But Iraq increased net production by 70,000 bpd and Nigeria and Libya also saw production increases or respectively 35,000 and 10,000 bpd. The IEA adjusted its "call" -- or demand -- on OPEC oil in line with rising demand in Asia and the Middle East. For Q2, the call was adjusted to 23.7 million bpd, still sharply lower than an estimated call of 26.2 million bpd in Q1. Writing before Tuesday's OPEC output decision, the IEA said: "Barring an unforeseen surge in demand or disruption to supply, OPEC may need to revisit their production target for the second quarter, unless they are content to see stocks build markedly."//

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