15 January 2004, 09:46  Swiss franc edges lower vs dlr after US trade data

ZURICH, Jan 15 - The Swiss franc edged lower against the dollar and remained steady on the euro in early trade on Thursday as a surprise fall in the U.S. trade deficit helped lift the greenback off recent seven-year lows The dollar was at 1.2312/17 francs compared with 1.2264/70 late on Wednesday, clear of this week's intraday low of 1.2140 -- which was the lowest level since August 1996. The euro was at 1.5592/94 francs after 1.5609/16. A smaller than expected U.S. trade deficit in November buoyed the dollar in the previous session, adding to a flurry of dollar buying following concerned comments from European policy-makers about the euro's rise. Swiss dealers were watching for retail sales data for November, due to be released at 0815 GMT. However, they noted that private consumption was not expected to be a major driver of Swiss economic growth in the coming months. Economists at UBS also noted that Swiss producer and import prices -- seen as a pointer to future consumer price inflation -- were due to be released soon, and may show a slight firming in terms of producer prices. "While...we are also looking for higher Swiss inflation rates at some stage in the year 2004, we see a clear risk that the improved economic outlook means increased pricing power in the industry and thus higher producer prices," they said. The Swiss National Bank expects price pressures to remain tame over the coming year, forecasting consumer price inflation of 0.4 percent over 2004 despite interest rates which are being held at record lows in order to foster a recovery.//

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