Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. domestic security officials raised the terrorist threat alert to its second-highest level as the AAA, the largest leisure-travel agency, forecast a 2 percent rise in year-end travel fueled by a growing economy. AAA said an estimated 59.6 million people will take trips of more than 50 miles from mid-December through early January, up from 58.2 million last year. This rise, after a 2.8 percent drop in 2002, is mainly because of increased consumer confidence and economic growth, said AAA spokesman Justin McNaull and travel agents. The decision to boost the terrorism threat alert was made after the forecast.
``We've been told by all of our franchises across the country that the biggest factor has been the economy,'' said Steve Loucks, a spokesman for Minneapolis-based Carlson Wagonlit Travel Associates, which has 900 U.S. offices. The U.S. economy expanded at an 8.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest since 1984, and is projected to grow 4.4 percent next year, a percentage point faster than the average during the record 10-year expansion that ended in 2001. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was at 89.6 for December, up from 77.6 in March, when the U.S. went to war against Iraq. Delays at airport security checkpoints may occur after the decision yesterday by the Department of Homeland Security to raise the terrorism threat alert to the second-highest level of orange, or ``high,'' because of a ``substantial increase'' in the potential for attacks during the holidays. Homeland Security Secretary Thomas Ridge said ``credible threats'' received ahead of the Christian and Jewish holidays prompted the change from yellow, or ``elevated,'' to one tier below the highest rating of red, or ``severe.''
Airport Patience
Ridge asked for travelers' patience at airports and other areas affected by heightened security and asked Americans to continue their holiday travel plans. ``Gather with your family and friends and enjoy the spirit of the season,'' he said. Having Christmas fall on a Thursday also is contributing to the travel rise, McNaull said. Many people take vacation time the next day and with the weekend have at least four days, enough for a vacation trip rather than just visiting relatives, he said. AAA's forecast for the Christmas-New Year's period is based on a Travel Industry Association of America monthly poll of 1,300 adults. A record 63 million people traveled during 1995's holiday and 59.9 million traveled in 2001, AAA has reported. Auto travel, the most popular mode of transportation, will rise 2.5 percent to 48.5 million and air travel will increase 2 percent to 8.3 million, AAA said. Those going by car will find gas prices about 10 cents a gallon higher than last year with a national average of $1.48, the agency said. The remaining 2.8 million people will travel by bus or train.
Price Increases
Airlines and hotels have been able to increase prices this year, said Loucks and other travel agents, without giving specifics. AAA said 24 percent of travelers use hotels or motels. The rise in travel means more crowded planes and fewer last- minute choices, travel agents said. Some flights are sold out or have only higher-priced tickets available, said Nancy McLaren, a travel agent at Scottsdale, Arizona-based Welcome Aboard Travel. For instance, Tom Parsons, who monitors prices for bestfares.com, said $930 was the cheapest round-trip fare between Dallas and Tampa between Dec. 27 and Jan. 2 that he could find as of Friday. U.S. planes are expected to be about 80 percent full, Parsons said. Sales for the period at AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, the world's largest carrier, have been about the same as last year, spokeswoman Jacquie Young said.
Airport Security
U.S. airports are providing the usual cautionary advice to passengers: Allow plenty of time to get through security and ticketing, and don't wrap gifts being carried on a plane because they may need to be opened and inspected by the Transportation Security Agency. Chicago's O'Hare International Airport, the second busiest in the U.S. behind Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International, will offer free gift wrapping to encourage people not to try to take wrapped packages through security. O'Hare and Chicago's Midway Airway expect a total of 3.3 million travelers between Dec. 19 and Jan. 1, an increase of 5 percent from last year, said Chicago Aviation Department spokeswoman Monique Bond.//www.bloomberg.com