6 November 2003, 09:38  Dollar stuck in range ahead of key data

TOKYO, Nov 6 - The dollar was glued in tight ranges on Thursday as traders waited to see if job figures will support a bright picture of a U.S. recovery depicted by recent upbeat data. "Recent U.S data has been good but my impression is that the dollar hasn't fully capitalised on it," said Junya Tanase, a foreign exchange strategist at JP Morgan Chase. On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management's October non-manufacturing index showed a reading of 64.7, beating consensus forecasts of 63.0. The employment component of the survey, closely watched because a soft labour market is seen as the weakest link in the current U.S. recovery, rose to its highest level in three years. Attention is also focused on Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's speech at 1500 GMT on Thursday, his first address on the economy since July. As of 0600 GMT, the dollar was at 110.00/05 yen compared with 109.86/94 in late U.S. trade on Wednesday. The euro was at $1.1446/49 , off a one-month low of 1.1412 hit in New York on Wednesday. If the euro extends recent losses and falls below $1.14, it will have given up all the gains made against the dollar since the Group of Seven industrial nations issued a statement in September calling for a "flexible" stance on exchange rates. The yen was supported as Japanese exporters, having seen the greenback fall to three-year lows below 108 yen only last week, are eager to convert dollar-denominated revenues into yen whenever the dollar rises above 110 yen.
KEY EVENTS AHEAD
Traders expect trade to stay range-bound ahead of key events including the U.S. job report. Lower-than-expected payroll figures could rekindle speculation that U.S. officials want a weaker dollar to help their exporters, and could push down the greenback, some analysts said. "If the figures turn out bad, people like (U.S. Treasury Secretary John) Snow might no longer be able to continue denying they want a weak dollar," said JP Morgan's Tanase. Despite repeated denials by Snow, speculation that the Bush administration wants a weaker dollar grew after the G7 statement in September. Sterling was steady ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy decision due later in the day. The British central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage point, and the market has factored in such a move. Sterling stood at around $1.6770 , well below last week's five-year highs of above $1.70. The European Central Bank is also holding a policy meeting. No rate changes are expected, but the market will keep a close eye on what the bank's new president, Jean-Claude Trichet, says at a news conference afterwards.//www..com

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