Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Americans bought fewer autos in October and reined in purchases at stores after spending at the fastest pace in six years during the past three months, economists said the Commerce Department may report today. Retail sales may have declined 0.2 percent last month, according to the median of 68 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Excluding motor vehicles, sales may have risen at a slower pace than in the month before. In the third quarter, consumer spending rose at a 6.6 percent annual rate, the fastest since 1997. The report is set for 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
Manufacturers are boosting production this quarter as the expansion strengthens, a Federal Reserve report may show at 9:15 a.m. in Washington. The gauge of work performed at factories, mines and utilities may have climbed 0.4 percent in October, the same as the month before, according to the median estimate. ``While consumer demand is moderating from last quarter's torrid pace, the production side of the economy is gaining momentum,'' said Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``With business confidence improving, capital spending plans are picking up and desired inventory levels are rising.'' After expanding at a 7.2 percent annual pace in the third quarter, the economy added 126,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department reported last Friday. Unemployment fell to 6 percent. Companies typically hire more people once they gain confidence that economic growth will be sustained after the end of a recession, and the last one ended two years ago.
Consumer Confidence
Improvement in the job market may make Americans more confident about the recovery, as well. The University of Michigan's preliminary sentiment index for November may rise to 91.4 from 89.6 in October, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The Michigan survey's findings are to be released at 9:50 a.m. Washington time. The Labor Department's producer prices index, set for release at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, may show a 0.2 percent increase for October after rising 0.3 percent in September, according to the median forecast. Excluding food and energy, the index may have climbed 0.1 percent after no change a month earlier, economists said. From July through September, 286,000 jobs were added in the U.S., helping President George W. Bush fend off Democratic criticism that the tax cuts he championed this year have done little to spark employment. Voters decide in a year whether to elect Bush to a second term. ``As the year comes to a close, the economy has plenty of momentum,'' said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Service Inc. in Boston. ``Now, as more jobs are added, demand should be increasing and the economy will build momentum through 2004.''
Autos Sales
Retail sales for last month will reflect a decline in purchases of automobiles, economists said. Auto companies sold 15.6 million cars and trucks at an annual rate in October, down from 16.7 million in September and 19 million in August, according to industry figures. Homeowners had less money to spend after mortgage refinancing slowed from the record pace earlier this year, economists said. Tax refunds for families with dependent children may already have been spent.
Excluding vehicles, retail sales may have risen 0.2 percent in October, according to the Bloomberg survey. Sales at retailers excluding auto dealerships rose 0.3 percent in September after increasing 1.2 percent in each of the previous three months. ``Ongoing developments suggest only a modest pullback from the economy's blistering summer pace, with growth over the next few quarters averaging possibly 4.5 percent to 5 percent,'' said Robert DiClemente, an economist at Citigroup Global Markets Inc., in a report to clients. //www.bloomberg.com