14 November 2003, 09:10  Eurozone expected to post 0.3% growth

LONDON, Nov 13 - Economists have raised their forecasts for euro zone economic growth in the third quarter after encouraging data from Germany and particularly France, a poll showed. The mid-forecast from 20 economists showed euro zone gross domestic product growing 0.3 percent compared both with the previous three months and with the year-ago period. Before French, German and Dutch third-quarter GDP data on Thursday and Italian Treasury expectations of a strong number there, they had expected the bloc's GDP to have grown 0.2 percent. "The data has come in stronger than expected. We've been surprised by the net balance of how strong they have been. Certainly in Italy, we didn't think it was going to be that strong," said Michael Every at RBC Capital Markets in London. On Wednesday an Italian Treasury source confirmed a report in the Corriere della Sera newspaper that the Treasury expects 0.4 percent growth in the third quarter, versus a median forecast of 0.2 percent. Official figures are due on Friday. French GDP rose 0.4 percent on the quarter, above the consensus forecast of 0.3 percent. Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, pulled out of recession in the third quarter with 0.2 percent growth -- in line with expectations -- and the Dutch economy expanded 0.1 percent after nine months of contraction. However, economists noted they had only marginally raised their forecasts for the whole euro zone, and this did not alter the general economic outlook for the region.
"The worst is over. But the problem is that there are many constraints to GDP growth prospects in terms of budgetary policy, in terms of employment and overall in terms of prospects on the U.S. economy," said Olivier Gasnier at SG Economics in Paris. In the April to June period, the area's economy shrank 0.1 percent on the quarter -- its first contraction since the final three months of 2001. Greater domestic and external demand is expected to help the bloc's economy return to growth, but it is set to continue to lag behind the United States. Official U.S. data, which annualises the quarterly rate, showed 7.2 percent growth in the third quarter. Recalculated by to make the numbers comparable with European growth measurements, U.S. growth was a more modest 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.3 percent year-on-year, but still markedly stronger than in the euro zone. The official euro zone estimate is due at 1100 GMT on Friday, November 14.//

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