BERLIN, Oct 9 - Following are economists' reactions to news on Thursday that German unemployment adjusted for seasonal factors fell by 14,000 in Septemberto 4.392 million. The figure came from a source with knowledge of the data due to be released by Federal Labour Office at 0800 GMT. Latest comment:
JOERG KRAEMER, INVESCO ASSET MANAGEMENT:
"This is better than expected. I had predicted a small rise. Normally, one should expect a monthly jobless rise of 25,000 with the weak economy. The current fall is the result of the efforts of the labour office to remove those who do not wish to work from the unemployment statistics." "The big question is when will the rise of unemployment, the result of the weak economy, again be visible in the statistics? That will be in the coming months, in the fourth quarter, and the jobless total will rise again because the number of people who do not want to work and can be removed from the statistics is limited. You can compare it with a lemon. You cannot continue to press juice out of it." "Economic growth is currently too weak to prevent unemployment continuing to rise until autumn 2004. I see strong growth from mid-2004 and unemployment reacting about three quarters later." Previous comments
STEFAN BIELMEIER, DEUTSCHE BANK:
"The decline is a bit more pronounced than expected, but the current economic environment is too weak to generate jobs as we can see from the decline of employment up to July. The improvement is due to the slow bite of labour market reforms. We do not foresee a sustainable improvement in the jobs market until the first quarter of 2004. Recent positive economic signals, such as the upturn in orders, are actually too weak to have an effect on jobs. The best we can hope for is a stabilisation of the labour market."
ANDREAS REES, HYPOVEREINSBANK:
"The pattern is the same as last month: The Hartz labour market reforms are having an effect. The extent is nevertheless surprising. The effect of the reforms should be felt up to the end of the year... I would imagine that the overall effect of the reforms taken together would be around 100,000 (people). Obviously the effect seems to be stronger than we had expected until now." "But the million-dollar question is whether the upturn in the economy will be felt in the labour market. We think average unemployment for 2004 will be higher than 2003. The economic impulses are just too weak. The Hartz reforms are one-time effects that will disappear from the statistics at some point. Overall, the reforms will make the economy more flexible but we cannot expect too much for 2004."
THORSTEN POLLEIT, BARCLAYS CAPITAL RESEARCH "One month's figures should not be given too much emphasis. We can have a positive surprise, but it does not mean that the labour market is clearly getting better. We know we need growth of 1.5 percent for a substantial improvement and we're not seeing that." "It's positive, but it does not mark a change in the trend. We will see further rises in winter. The Hartz labour market reforms are not creating jobs. They just mean the unemployed are being placed more rapidly. A rise above five million at the turn of the year is not unlikely."//