30 October 2003, 14:12  Oil slumps as funds react to US stocks builds

LONDON, Oct 30 - Oil prices extended recent losses on Thursday as speculators warmed to the idea of more comfortable stock levels ahead of the winter, traders said. U.S. light crude futures <0#CL:> fell 49 cents to $28.42 per barrel after losing 65 cents on Wednesday. In London, Brent crude was 45 cents lower at $26.99. Brent crude prices have fallen about 14 percent since mid-October as fuel stocks have slowly built up in the world's biggest energy market, easing brokers' fears for a winter supply squeeze. U.S. government data released on Wednesday triggered the fall after showing surprise builds in crude and distillates, including crucial heating oil stocks, in the week to October 24. OPEC Secretary-General Alvaro Silva reassured the market that the cartel would not change output before its December 4 meeting, and added that it saw "lots of oil" on the market next year. "For 2004, we forecast a lot of oil on the market, more oil than maybe the market needs," Silva told a news conference in Vienna. On Wednesday, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude stocks rose 3.6 million barrels to 291.8 million barrels as crude imports hit 10.2 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest ever rate of imports for a week in October. The rise left crude stocks almost six million barrels above levels a year earlier, but below the 300-million-barrel level considered comfortable ahead of the winter. Heating oil stocks, carefully watched by the market as the northern winter develops, rose 2.6 million barrels to 58.2 million barrels.
Traders said the stock builds could have changed the thinking of speculative funds, whose abrupt turnaround to bet on higher prices after OPEC announced it would tighten supplies from November had previously supported the market. OPEC's announcement in September that it would cut supply by 3.5 percent to 24.5 million barrels a day from November 1 had set oil off on a bull run that took it to a near seven-month high of $31.50 for front-month Brent. "There must be some fund liquidation," said Christopher Bellew of brokerage Prudential Bache in London. "The question is how far does it go down before it encounters some support."//

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