28 October 2003, 10:46  Oil prices ease as market watches OPEC moves

SINGAPORE, Oct 28 - U.S. oil prices pushed slightly lower on Tuesday after breaking below $30 a barrel, pressured by profit taking despite OPEC indications the cartel would not raise production before its scheduled December meeting. Oil marched above $32 a barrel earlier in October as the market factored in OPEC's decision in September to cut production by 3.5 percent from November, just ahead of peak heating oil demand season in the northern hemisphere. But the market has been weakening steadily in the past two weeks as speculators cashed on their gains. On Tuesday, front-month New York crude futures were down 15 cents at $29.77 per barrel, extending losses of 24 cents on Monday. In London, Brent crude was down nine cents at $28.30 a barrel. OPEC has said it will cut supplies as planned, eventhough its reference crude oil price has been above the cartel's preferred $22-$28 target range for 12 successive working days. Under OPEC rules, the group may consider raising output if the price stays above $28 for 20 consecutive working days. Venezuela's energy minister, Rafael Ramirez, said on Monday OPEC could decide to leave production unchanged when it meets on December 4, but he ruled out an increase in output. OPEC Secretary-General Alvaro Silva said last week that OPEC should defer any new decision on supply until the December 4 meeting.
Iran and Libya have also said the cartel should hold off on a production increase if its reference price stays above $28. "We see no reason for this. If we look at the fundamentals there is enough supply on the market. We don't see a reason why the price is so high," a Libyan OPEC delegate said on Monday. However, Katsunori Watanabe, director of research at Japan's Nihon Unicom Corp., said despite the OPEC comments, the cartel still left uncertainty in the market over how it would apply the 20-day rule in the future. "Given this situation, with prices staying above $28, the 20 days would end on November 5, which would imply more supply on the market," Watanabe said. U.S. refiners continue to push out more heating oil ahead of winter, which analysts said would lower crude stocks in weekly government data to be released on Wednesday, covering changes in stocks in the world's biggest energy market last week. Analysts polled by on Monday showed an average expectation for a one million barrel draw in crude stocks, a 500,000 barrel draw in distillate supplies, including heating oil, and an 800,000 barrel rise in gasoline inventories in the week to Friday.//

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