BERLIN, Sept 4 - Following are economists' reactions to news that German unemployment adjusted for seasonal factors was unchanged in August at July's 4.408 million. The figure was leaked by a source with knowledge of the data due to be released by the Federal Labour Office at 0800 GMT. Latest comment:
STEFAN BIELMEIER, DEUTSCHE BANK:
"It's the same story as the last few months. The labour market is profiting from reforms which have led to a stagnation of the seasonally adjusted number. This is not due to economic developments but down to measures for adjusting the statistics. "We only expect an economically-induced stabilisation at the end of the year. However the current development could have a positive impact on the mood of households."
JAN-PAUL RITSCHER, HSH NORDBANK:
"It is what we expected. The previous month we had an increase with the seasonally adjusted numbers, which can be attributed to the summer holidays. Lots of school leavers poured into the labour market. So the move in the other direction in August is better news. "We can see that the labour market is out of the woods. We will not see an upturn yet but it is stabilising. In the winter we may reach the five million mark, but only temporarily. From the start of 2004 the jobs market will recover. We just can't expect too fast a pace."
Earlier comments: ANDREAS REES, HYPOVEREINSBANK: "This is because of the Hartz reforms. This effect could continue for a while, certainly, but it's still a one-off. I reckon that overall the Hartz reforms will mean betweeen 50,000 and 75,000 fewer unemployed. In January or February we will be at 4.9 million unadjusted unemployed." "That's why we believe the better global environment will not translate into private consumption in Germany. Unemployment will peak at precisely the point when tax cuts should have a positive effect on consumption. Unemployment will overshadow everything. We won't see a turnaround next year either."
ULLA LAHL, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK: "The data were as I expected, and I think it was mainly due to the Hartz reforms and statistical factors rather than the first effects of an economic recovery. July was bad due to the school holidays and school leavers not finding apprenticeship places and this wasn't the case in August. "However, there is no fundamental improvement on the labour market in sight until the second half of next year at the earliest. The PMI surveys also show that firms are still cutting jobs."//