26 September 2003, 12:44  European Forex Trading Preview

Euro unable to sustain gains
The single currency failed to capitalize on yesterday's better than expected German Ifo index, and retreated back beneath the 1.15-mark after topping a fresh multi-week high at 1.1533. In the coming session, Eurozone data consist of Germany August import prices, France August PPI, Italy July industrial orders, and Italy August wage inflation. EURUSD held steady in a narrow range, trading just below the 1.15-mark. Interim support is seen at 1.1450, backed by 1.14 and 1.1340. Subsequent floors are seen at 1.13, followed by 1.1250 and 1.12. Resistance is seen at 1.15, followed by 1.1525 and 1.1548 - the high from July 25. Subsequent ceilings emerge at 1.16, backed by 1.1650 and 1.1685.
Yen consolidates
Japan's FSA and Economics Minister Heizo Takenaka disc ounted recent yen gains, saying it is not expected to have a great impact on the macro-economy. He also said the matter was a medium-term trend and it was not possible to judge the impact of foreign exchange moves over the time-frame of only one-week. Nevertheless, Takenaka reiterated that medium-term trends in currencies must be closely monitored. Separately, newly appointed FinMin Tanigaki warned that recent moves in the yen have been sudden. He feels that forex rates should reflect economic fundamentals. Lastly, Tanigaki repeated the MoF's commitment to closely watch forex moves and act if necessary. Data released earlier revealed that economic conditions remain bleak in Japan. August retail sales slumped 2.0% y/y, marking its 29th consecutive monthly decline - as consumers continue to retrench. Nationwide core CPI fell 0.1% in August, posting its 47th month of declining prices.
USDJPY consolidated narrowly within a 30-pip range just above the 112-level. Resistanc e is seen at 112.50, followed by 113 and 113.60. Additional gains will target 114, followed by 114.30 and 114.70. Support begins at 112, followed by 111.70 a previous peak from Feb 25, 2000 and 111.30. Subsequent floors are seen at 111 and 110.65.
EURJPY backed away from the 130-mark and holds steady at 128.45. Resistance starts at 128.90, followed by 129.30 and 129.60. Additional ceilings are seen at 130 and 130.30. On the downside, support begins at 128.30, followed by 128 and 127.75. Subsequent floors are eyed at 127.50, backed by 127 and 126.70. //www.forexnews.com

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