5 August 2003, 11:10 Aussie bill futures dip, bonds up as cenbank meets
SYDNEY, Aug 5 - Australian short-dated debt futures
fell on Tuesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the
outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia's August meeting.
Bill futures continued to price out any chance of a rate cut
this quarter, with September bills implying a yield close to the
4.75 percent cash rate.
The contract had priced at least a quarter point rate cut
just a month ago, but that was phased out after data showed
growth in the United States improved, and Australian consumers
continue to borrow steadily to buy property.
"Investors believe that more likely than not, the RBA will
keep cash rates unchanged (rather) than ease. The RBA fears
creating a housing bubble," said Prashant Newnaha, interest rate
strategist at Westpac Banking Corp.,
"Given the recent sell off, this should encourage buyingoff
current levels," he said.
Benchmark 10-year bond futures rose 1.5 ticks to 94.525 on
modest volume of 12,382 lots.
Bonds were boosted by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers
last week but had fallen sharply in recent weeks on tentative
signs that the U.S. economy is at a crucial juncture, encouraging
investors to switch back to stocks from safer government-backed
bonds.
A poll of economists taken on Friday gave only a 25
percent chance of a rate move this week, with only four of 20
surveyed seeing a cut as likely. Any change in policy will be
announced at 9:30 a.m. (2330 GMT) on Wednesday.
"Stronger reports on local retail sales and building
approvals, some better news on the U.S. economy and a softer
Australian dollar have reduced the pressure for a cut," said Rory
Robertson, a New York-based interest-rate strategist at Macquarie
Bank.
The market will get a full explanation of the Bank's current
policy thinking when it releases its quarterly monetary policy
statement on Monday.
"The RBA?s inflation forecasts and the balance of risks to
these forecasts will be crucial to the rates outlook over the
next three-to-six-months," said Warren Hogan, strategist at
Credit Suisse First Boston.
"If the RBA presents abalanced risks outlook to inflation,
this would imply that the chances of a rate cut are greatly
diminished," he said.
The market was unmoved by news just before the close of a
blast which rocked a Marriott hotel in Jakarta.
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