5 August 2003, 11:10  Aussie bill futures dip, bonds up as cenbank meets

SYDNEY, Aug 5 - Australian short-dated debt futures fell on Tuesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia's August meeting. Bill futures continued to price out any chance of a rate cut this quarter, with September bills implying a yield close to the 4.75 percent cash rate. The contract had priced at least a quarter point rate cut just a month ago, but that was phased out after data showed growth in the United States improved, and Australian consumers continue to borrow steadily to buy property. "Investors believe that more likely than not, the RBA will keep cash rates unchanged (rather) than ease. The RBA fears creating a housing bubble," said Prashant Newnaha, interest rate strategist at Westpac Banking Corp., "Given the recent sell off, this should encourage buyingoff current levels," he said. Benchmark 10-year bond futures rose 1.5 ticks to 94.525 on modest volume of 12,382 lots. Bonds were boosted by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers last week but had fallen sharply in recent weeks on tentative signs that the U.S. economy is at a crucial juncture, encouraging investors to switch back to stocks from safer government-backed bonds. A poll of economists taken on Friday gave only a 25 percent chance of a rate move this week, with only four of 20 surveyed seeing a cut as likely. Any change in policy will be announced at 9:30 a.m. (2330 GMT) on Wednesday. "Stronger reports on local retail sales and building approvals, some better news on the U.S. economy and a softer Australian dollar have reduced the pressure for a cut," said Rory Robertson, a New York-based interest-rate strategist at Macquarie Bank. The market will get a full explanation of the Bank's current policy thinking when it releases its quarterly monetary policy statement on Monday. "The RBA?s inflation forecasts and the balance of risks to these forecasts will be crucial to the rates outlook over the next three-to-six-months," said Warren Hogan, strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston. "If the RBA presents abalanced risks outlook to inflation, this would imply that the chances of a rate cut are greatly diminished," he said. The market was unmoved by news just before the close of a blast which rocked a Marriott hotel in Jakarta.

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