30 July 2003, 23:02  FED`s STERN sees significant lift in US growth

MINNEAPOLIS, July 30 - Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Gary Stern said on Wednesday he expects a significant pick-up in economic growth, and though there are few concrete signs of that yet, anecdotes are more positive. "I do anticipate a significant acceleration in growth," Stern told in an interview, citing the economy's resilience to shocks, the stimulus from tax cuts and low interest rates as well as a fundamentally sound financial system. "I think the economy is both capable and likely to grow by 4 percent or something north of 4 percent sometime in the next 18 months," he said, adding growth would be sustained at that level for more than a quarter or two. But at the same time, he expects no significant increase in inflation to accompany that economic growth, and adds that inflation could even diminish slightly from present low levels. The economy has been growing at a feeble pace of around 1.5 percent for the past three quarters. Stern, who is not a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee this year, has not made a public speech on the economy all year. His optimistic outlook on growth was similar to remarks made by Chicago Fed chief Michael Moskow earlier this week, and were generally more upbeat than recent comments from other Fed officials. Stern played down the recent jump in bond yields, which could undermine the strength in the housing market, saying some people had made a "big deal" about the increase but rates were still attractive by historical comparisons. "So even if it leads to some effect on housing, (with rates) at these levels I suspect it is going to be quite modest," he said. Although he conceded there was little hard evidence yet of the long-anticipated pick-up in growth, the central banker said the anecdotes he has been hearing from businesses have been more positive. Stern said companies are now seriously considering investment projects that they had previously dismissed out of hand, and had the financial wherewithal to spend. Some firms in the Minneapolis Fed's district have also lifted hiring. But he was more cautious about the employment outlook at the national level, saying "I wish I knew" when there would be a demonstrable improvement in the labor market. The monthly payrolls report for July, due out on Friday, is expected to show a near flat reading after five months of declines.

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