30 July 2003, 10:03  German consumer sentiment indicator rises to 4.5 in august vs 4.2 in July

BERLIN, July 30 - German consumer morale was expected to improve further in August, the GfK market research group said on Wednesday, signalling that consumers see more prosperous times ahead. "It is becoming increasingly clear that consumer sentiment is emerging from the trough it reached earlier this year... however, a strong improvement of the labour market is required for a fundamental recovery," Rolf Buerkl, a researcher for Nuremberg-based GfK, said in a statement. The positive sentiment data echoed the closely-watched Ifo business climate index this week, which showed business sentiment in July climbed to its highest level in a year, boosted by firms' expectations for the future. NOTE - The consumer climate indicator forecasts the development of real private consumption in the following month. An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop in comparison with the same period a year ago. According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1 percent in private consumption. The "willingness to buy" indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: "Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?" The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months. The additional business cycle expectations index reflects the assessment of those questioned of the general economic situation in the next 12 months.

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