29 July 2003, 11:55  Dollar edges down as market readies for data round

LONDON, July 29 - The dollar edged lower against the euro and yen on Tuesday as the market readied for the first in a volley of U.S. data this week expected to offer clues as to the pace of economic recovery. First up is July U.S. consumer confidence at 1400 GMT, with a reading from the Conference Board of 85.0 forecast, up from 83.5 in June. But analysts said the market would need to see manufacturing, gross domestic product and jobs data due later in the week before it would decide whether to push euro/dollar up over $1.16 and towards record highs or down to $1.11. "This is just a continuation of the bias we've seen over the past week with euro/dollar edging higher," said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Financial Corporation. "The U.S. data this week and how the equity market reacts to it will have a bearing on whether the $1.16 area holds." By 0745 GMT the dollar was at $1.1515 per euro, soft on the day and above a three-week low set on Friday. Against the yen the greenback was also weak, trading at 119.25 yen , just below a four-week high set on Monday. EXPORTER PRESSURE Tokyo traders said Japanese exporter sales had kept a lid on the dollar in Asian trade, with sell orders lined up between 119.60 and 120 yen. Exporters are rumoured to be looking for a chance to sell before the mid-August summer holidays. "The market is turning increasingly bullish on the dollar (versus the yen), but major sell orders on the topside are weighing heavily," said Hiroyuki Watanabe, forex section manager at Shinsei Bank in Tokyo. The dollar's downside was protected by market concerns about possible Bank of Japan intervention, with speculators nervous about selling the greenback below 119 yen. There was some encouraging news from Japan. Unemployment eased in June to 5.3 percent from 5.4 percent a month earlier, beating economists' forecast for 5.4 percent. But the data failed to fuel any movements in the foreign exchange market. The yen also showed muted reaction to upbeat comments on the Japanese economy by key policymakers. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said bright spots were emerging, citing a rise in the number of employed. Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said he saw Japan's GDP growth in the fiscal year to next March slightly beating a government forecast of 0.6 percent. DATA WEEK For euro/dollar, analysts said the $1.1600-25 area was pivotal as to whether the single currency could muster enough momentum to retest the May/June highs above $1.19 or whether it would turn tail and head back towards the $1.11 area. U.S. data is likely to be key. Thursday has the U.S. GDP report for the second quarter and Friday has July's jobs report as well as the Institute for Supply Management's reading for manufacturing activity in July. "Perhaps around Thursday or Friday, we might be able to get some idea about where the market is headed," said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at J.P. Morgan Chase in Tokyo. In the meantime, U.S. equity markets will also be watched closely. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.19 percent on Monday while the broader S&P 500 and the high-tech Nasdaq both shed around a quarter percent.

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