29 July 2003, 10:19  Dollar eases, lacking direction ahead of US data

TOKYO, July 29 - The dollar eased against the yen on Tuesday partly due to exporters' selling, but it stayed in tight ranges as the market awaited direction from a hefty series of U.S. data slated for this week. The greenback came under pressure after failing to break through the previous day's four-week high -- and Tuesday's intraday high -- of 119.59 yen, dealers said. Firm direction was also elusive, with the dollar's topside weighed down by stiff sell orders from exporters, and protection coming from the short-covering needs of non-Japanese fund operators, they said. "The market is turning increasingly bullish on the dollar (versus the yen), but major sell orders on the topside are weighing heavily," said Hiroyuki Watanabe, forex section manager at Shinsei Bank. As of 0557 GMT, the dollar was fetching 119.28/31 yen compared with the late U.S. level of 119.38/46. It was confined to a narrow range of 119.17-119.59 yen. Dealers said exporters were lining up sell orders between 119.60 and 120 yen, and they are rumoured to be eagerly looking for a chance to sell before the mid-August summer holidays. But the dollar was also protected by market concerns about possible Bank of Japan intervention, with speculators nervous about selling the greenback below 119 yen. While the dollar/yen trend was clear, the greenback's outlook against the euro and other major currencies was more opaque, with the market seeking clear direction from U.S. macro data and U.S. asset markets. The dollar was pressured slightly against the euro, with the single currency at $1.1508/15. It fetched $1.1487/91 in late U.S. trade on Monday. "The course of the market is not so clear at the moment, but the market is watching the trend of the U.S. economy and other economies to determine the direction," said Mitsuru Sahara, a vice president at UFJ Bank's forex dealing group. "The market also lacks direction as players are unwilling to take new positions in the summer holiday season," he said.
HEAVY DATA FLOW
The roll-out of U.S. economic indicators is due to begin at 1400 GMT, when consumer confidence figures for July are posted. A poll of economists revealed a median forecast for 85.0, up from 83.5 in June. Traders are also focusing on Thursday's U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) report for the second quarter as well as Friday's July jobs report and the Institute for Supply Management's reading for manufacturing activity in July. "Perhaps around Thursday or Friday, we might be able to get some idea about where the market is headed," said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at J.P. Morgan Chase. Japan's unemployment rate eased in June to 5.3 percent from 5.4 percent a month earlier, beating economists' forecast for 5.4 percent. But the data failed to fuel any movements in the foreign exchange market. The yen also showed muted reaction to upbeat comments on the Japanese economy by key policymakers. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said bright spots were emerging in the economy, citing a rise in the number of employed. Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said he saw Japan's GDP growth in the fiscal year to next March slightly beating a government forecast of 0.6 percent. The euro was trading at 137.30/33 yen compared with 137.23 in late U.S. trade on Monday. It hit a four-week peak of 137.45 yen on Monday.

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