London, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Tony Blair says he'll follow U.S. President George W. Bush to war in Iraq with or without a United Nations mandate. His loyalty is putting at risk the U.K. prime minister's leadership of the Labour Party. Clare Short, the international development secretary, last night became the first member of Blair's cabinet to threaten to quit over Iraq, attacking the British leader's stance as ``extraordinarily reckless.'' ``If there is not UN authority for military action or if there is not UN authority for the reconstruction of the country, I will not uphold a breach of international law or this undermining of the UN and I'll resign from the government,'' Short told British Broadcasting Corp. radio.
Short joins a Labour revolt that's spreading as chances increase that the U.S. and U.K. may wage war without UN backing. Andrew Reed, a junior government aide, quit yesterday over Iraq. Almost a third of Blair's own Labour legislators last month backed a motion in parliament saying the case for war isn't made. Bush last week said he doesn't need permission of the UN Security Council to attack Saddam Hussein's regime. Blair said that while he'd prefer a new UN Security Council resolution authorizing action, he'd still back Bush in the face of ``unreasonable'' vetoes from France, Russia or China.
Blair `Surprised'
The prime minister was ``surprised'' by Short's comments, said Tom Kelly, a spokesman for Blair. ``Nobody should be sending mixed messages to Saddam Hussein.'' Kelly declined to answer questions on whether Blair will sack Short for attacking him. Blair is ``risking everything,'' said Patrick Dunleavy, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics. ``I don't think that the Labour Party will forgive him for this.'' An ICM Research Ltd. poll yesterday said 85 percent of U.K. voters oppose war without a UN mandate. Opponents of Blair's stance on Iraq last month organized the biggest political rally in British history, bringing more than 750,000 people to the streets of London under the slogan ``Stop the War.'' A MORI Ltd. poll last week said that only 31 percent of voters say they're happy with Blair's personal performance as prime minister, against 61 percent who said they're unhappy. Anger over Iraq among the ruling party and its supporters poses the greatest risk to Blair's position, analysts say. According to the MORI poll, his support rate among Labour voters fell from 67 percent to 49 percent in just one month.
Brown's Backing
The British leader and his allies are alive to the potential threat. Since the revolt in parliament, Blair and Foreign Secretary Jack Straw have been holding private meetings with Labour legislators, arguing the case for backing the U.S. ``Everyone in the country should support Tony Blair,'' Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown said today. Brown was Blair's rival for the Labour leadership in 1994. Blair and his allies are attempting to counter people like Alan Simpson, an anti-war Labour legislator who's trying to sign up new grassroots members of the party to work against Blair on Iraq. ``Anyone who thinks a war on Iraq will solve anything will be sadly mistaken,'' Simpson said. ``This is a battle to reclaim the soul of the Labour Party.''
Stirring Up Tensions
Iraq is stirring up tensions between Blair and his party that date back to his election as Labour leader in 1994. Then, the party had lost four straight elections as voters rejected its socialist policies on higher taxes, state ownership of industry and dismantling Britain's nuclear arsenal. Blair fought political battles to change the party's policies, dropping pledges to buy back former state-owned companies, and promising voters not to raise income taxes. Labour's landslide win in 1997, ending 18 years of Conservative government, silenced most critics within his party during Blair's first term. Re-elected in 2001, Blair's now under more pressure. He raised income taxes last year in order to meet election promises of better public schools, hospitals and transport networks. Since then, economic growth has fallen, curbing tax revenue and forcing the government to borrow more. Several key projects to upgrade Britain's railways are being cut back or postponed for lack of funding, the government's Strategic Rail Authority said in January. Bush Liability
The Labour backlash against Blair has been sharpened by his support over Iraq for Bush, who has rejected UN treaties on causes dear to many Labour members, such as climate control and an international criminal court. Dunleavy at the LSE predicted Blair may be removed as Labour leader by the next general election, due by 2006. Michael Saunders, chief U.K. economist at Schroder Salomon Smith Barney, echoed that prediction. ``If there is a war without a second resolution, Blair might be vulnerable to a more sudden collapse of support among MPs, and choose to resign,'' Saunders wrote in a note to clients last week. While many of Blair's Labour opponents want a return to the party's traditional policies, the critics also include some who backed him in earlier battles. Among member of parliament who rebelled last month over Iraq were Chris Smith, Frank Dobson, Peter Kilfoyle, Tony Lloyd and Doug Henderson -- all of them former ministers in Blair's government.
More Challenges
By going against his own party on Iraq, Blair may provoke once-loyal legislators to mount more challenges to his authority over other subjects, according to Harry Barnes, another anti-war Labour legislator. ``For many, the Iraq vote was the first time that they had voted against the government,'' Barnes said. ``Once someone loses their political virginity, it is much easier to rebel again.'' One sign of such a rebellion came last week, when more than 100 of Labour's 411 legislators signed a petition opposing Blair's plan to free some National Health Service hospitals from central control. Short, the rebel cabinet minister, said Blair was being ``extraordinarily reckless'' in his handling of Iraq. ``The whole atmosphere of the current situation is deeply reckless,'' she said last night. ``Reckless for the world, reckless for the undermining of the UN in this disorderly world -- which is wider than Iraq -- reckless with our government, reckless with his own future, position and place in history.'' //www.quote.bloomberg.com