Tokyo, Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's trade surplus probably widened in January as exports rebounded from an unexpected drop in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The trade surplus widened 4.7 percent to 688.5 billion yen ($5.79 billion), according to the median of 10 economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Ministry of Finance will release trade figures at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on Monday. Japan is relying on exports, which fueled a 0.5 percent economic expansion last quarter, to sustain a recovery from its third recession in a decade. Overseas shipments may falter as the threat of war in Iraq and tension over North Korea's nuclear arms program curb global growth, economists say. ``There's nothing promising about the outlook for exports when growth in the U.S. is slowing,'' said Akio Makabe, chief economist at Mizuho Research Institute. ``The heightened tension in Iraq and North Korea adds to the bad news.''
The yen was at 118.35 to the dollar at 10:51 a.m. in Tokyo from 118.36 late yesterday in New York. Growth in the U.S., the world's No. 1 economy and Japan's largest overseas market, slowed to an annual pace of 0.7 percent last quarter from 4 percent in the third. Germany's economy, Europe's biggest, probably shrank in the fourth quarter, the country's central bank said this week. Japan's government this week said growth will depend on whether ``the recovery in the U.S and other economies is sustained,'' according to its monthly economic report. From a year earlier, the trade surplus probably shrank to 127.5 billion yen from 183.7 billion yen, according to the median of 24 forecasts. Japan exports less during its New Year's holiday period while it still receives imports from other countries that celebrate Christmas. Japan last had a trade deficit in January 2001, of 98.5 billion yen. //www.quote.bloomberg.com