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Washington, Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales fell in January as consumers bought fewer automobiles and spent less on post-holiday sales at chains such as Target Corp., economists said today's government report may show.
Sales probably declined 0.6 percent to $306.1 billion last month, following a 1.2 percent surge in December, based on the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Sales excluding autos probably rose 0.5 percent to $232.4 billion, mainly because of higher gasoline prices, after showing no change in December.
``Consumers are being more careful, more choosy and more erratic in their spending patterns,'' said Geoffrey Somes, a senior economist at Fleet Bank in Boston. ``We certainly aren't likely to see sustained, broad-based gains in consumer spending until the current economic and political uncertainties stabilize.''
Restrained retail sales, which account for almost 30 percent of the economy, may keep U.S. economic growth below its potential this quarter. Americans are contending with a weak labor market, a fourth year of falling stock values and a jump in oil prices, leaving less money to spend on other goods and services.
The Commerce Department is to issue its report at 8:30 a.m. Washington time. The estimate of a 0.6 percent sales decline reflects the median of 62 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Retail sales are reported in current dollars and aren't adjusted for inflation.
Also at 8:30 a.m. Washington time, the Labor Department will probably report the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits fell for a fourth time in six weeks. States probably received 390,000 applications for benefits in the week that ended Saturday, according to a median of forecasts. That would be down from 391,000 the previous week. Claims have held below 400,000, the dividing line between job-market strength and weakness, for four out of the last five weeks.
Chain-Store Sales
Sales of new cars and trucks slowed last month to a 16.2 million annual rate after surging to 18.6 million in December, according to statistics compiled by Autodata Inc. January sales were the slowest since October.
At the same time, sales at stores open at least a year rose 1.8 percent in January, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. It was the smallest January gain since 1996, when the economy was pulling out of a slowdown.
Target, the No. 2 U.S. discount chain, said sales were down 0.4 percent from January 2002, more than its estimate. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, posted a 2.3 percent gain, at the low end of its forecast, and Gap Inc. said sales at stores open at least a year increased last month.
Fuel Prices
Rising gasoline prices probably boosted service station receipts, economists said, holding down spending on other goods. The price of fuel at the pump rose as high as $1.52 a gallon in January, the most since September 2001. Prices have since climbed, with the average at $1.65 a gallon this week, as the growing threat of a U.S.-led war on Iraq leads to concerns that supplies will be disrupted.
``Over the short run, people tend to buy the same amount of gasoline and don't change their driving habits,'' said Vincent Boberski, senior economist at RBC Dain Rauscher Inc. in Chicago. ``So when you have a big increase in gasoline prices, that tends to inflate retail sales.''
The jobless rate was 5.7 percent in January. While that was down from an eight-year high of 6 percent in December, most economists say unemployment will probably rise in 2003 because companies are reluctant to hire.
A decline in stock prices also means that Americans have less personal wealth, which may weigh on spending. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 23 percent last year after dropping 13 percent in 2001 and 10 percent in 2000. The index declined 2.7 percent in January.
Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, has kept growing because incomes are still rising. The lowest mortgage rates in four decades have spurred a wave of refinancing that has put more cash into Americans' pockets and made big-ticket purchases more affordable. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America's refinancing index was 5470.3 last week, above the average of 3388 for all of last year.