12 February 2003, 12:52  British Pound May Decline; BOE Seen Lowering Growth Forecast

London, Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound may fall against the dollar amid analysts' expectations the Bank of England will cut its forecast for U.K. economic growth. The U.K. central bank it publishes its quarterly inflation report today. It said last week that growth would be ``somewhat weaker'' than it estimated in November, when it forecast the economy would expand 3.1 percent this year. Policy makers unexpectedly pares the key lending rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75 percent last week, the lowest since 1955. ``There's a chance the inflation report will be more bearish than expected, which would take the shine off the pound,'' said Grant Lewis, an economist at Daiwa SMBC. ``We're looking for another rate cut by mid-year.''
The pound was at $1.6201 at 9:35 a.m. in London, compared with $1.6191 late yesterday. It last week fell for the first week in 10, and has pared its gain this year to 0.6 percent. The U.K. currency was at 66.44 pence per euro, from 66.35. The BOE report will be released at 10:30 a.m. London time. Bank Deputy Governor Mervyn King, who succeeds Governor Sir Edward George at the end of June, will then answer questions from journalists at a press conference. Britain's economy grew 0.9 percent in the third quarter, triple the pace in Germany, France and Italy. Even so, signs are gathering that growth is weakening. Factory production fell 4 percent last year, the biggest decline since the most recent recession ended 11 years ago. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply's three indexes tracking the U.K. economy fell together during the past two months for the first time in four years. Britain's unemployment rate remained at 3.1 percent last month, the lowest since July 1975, a government report showed. //www.quote.bloomberg.com

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