15 January 2003, 11:49  British Pound May Fall vs Dollar; Iraq War May Be Pushed Back

London, Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound may fall against the dollar amid expectations that war with Iraq may come later than expected. The U.K. currency was trading at $1.6031 at 8 a.m. in London, from $1.6068 late yesterday. Last week, it rose to $1.6162, its highest since February 2000. The U.K. currency was at 65.72 pence per euro, from 65.75 yesterday, when it fell to 66.14, the lowest since September 1999. ``Overall, the international picture's a little bit more stable,'' said Rob Hayward, a strategist at ABN Amro. ``There's talk of giving the weapons inspectors a bit more time, and it's helping the dollar.'' France and Germany joined United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan in urging patience as U.S. President George W. Bush said ``time is running out'' for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to disarm. UN inspectors led by Hans Blix said they need more time to complete their work.
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, speaking after a meeting late yesterday in Paris with French President Jacques Chirac, said Blix should be given ``that extra time which he rightfully demanded'' to complete inspections in Iraq. The inspectors will report to the UN Security Council Jan. 27 on whether Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein is cooperating with UN demands that it reveal its chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs. The dollar has been falling amid expectations the U.S. may lead an attack on Iraq as soon as next month. ``Investors tend to keep their money at home'' when they're concerned about war, ``and that penalizes the currencies of countries with current-account deficits,'' said Julian Jessop, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. He expects the pound to gain to $1.63 by year-end. A decision to keep funds at home may hurt the dollar because it will be harder for the U.S. to attract the $1.4 billion of foreign capital each day it needs to offset the shortfall in its current account, the broadest measure of international trade. The U.K. unemployment rate probably stayed at a 27-year low of 3.1 percent in December, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect a report at 9:30 a.m. to show. //www.quote.bloomberg.com

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