Washington, Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer spending probably rebounded in October after falling the previous month, economists said ahead of today's statistics. Other reports are likely to point to an improvement in manufacturing. The expected 0.3 percent rise in spending, based on the median of 56 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, would follow a 0.4 percent decline in September that was the biggest drop in 10 months. The Commerce Department report is likely to show that incomes last month rose 0.1 percent, the second-smallest increase of the year, restrained by weak wage growth. It ``argues for a weak recovery,'' said Tim Rogers, chief economist at Briefing.com, a Boston-based online consulting firm. ``Throughout the recession, and now recovery, the consumer proved more than willing to spend.''
A flurry of other reports is set for today in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday. The Commerce Department will probably report that orders for durable goods rebounded in October, rising 1.5 percent following a decline of 4.9 percent in September, economists said. The Chicago purchasing managers' manufacturing index will probably show less deterioration in November, rising to 48.6 from 45.9 in October, economists said. A reading below 50 suggests manufacturing isn't expanding. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits probably increased by 9,000 last week to 385,000 after falling a week earlier to the lowest level since July, economists said. The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for November will probably register a reading of 85, the same as the preliminary reading, which was up from October, economists said.
Schedule of Reports
The reports on consumer spending and jobless claims will be issued at 8:30 a.m. Washington time. The consumer sentiment index will be released at 9:50 a.m. The manufacturing reports will be issued at 10 a.m. Washington time. At noon Washington time, the Federal Reserve will release its regional economic survey, also known as the beige book. Consumers probably spent more on services and less on vehicles and other goods, economists said. Sales at Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's biggest retailer, are at the low end of expectations. Reduced spending and less income suggest the economy may be slowing, economists said. Growth of the economy is probably slowing to a 1.6 percent annual pace this quarter from a 4 percent rate in the previous three months, according to the latest consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Consumer spending will probably grow at a 1.1 percent annual pace in the last three months of 2002, the slowest in more than nine years, after rising 4.1 percent from July to September, the survey showed. //www.quote.bloomberg.com