/www.bloomberg.com/ By Siobhan Hughes
Washington, Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence rose in November for the first time in six months, providing further evidence the holiday retailing season may be stronger than economists and executives thought a month ago.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to 84.1 this month from a revised 79.6 in October that was the lowest in nine years. The gain came as consumers' assessments of present conditions and expectations for the next six months increased.
``The rebound in expectations suggests consumers do not expect economic conditions to become worse,'' said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. ``This comeback, combined with yesterday's upbeat forecasts for Christmas spending, signals a brighter holiday spending season than was anticipated only a month ago.''
U.S. consumers are gradually regaining confidence as stock prices recover from 5 1/2 year lows and as job cuts slow. The jump in confidence was the largest since March and may help keep spending from eroding. Target Corp. earlier this month reported that its fiscal third-quarter net income jumped by the most in four years.
Economists had expected a reading of 85 in the confidence index after October's previously reported 79.4, based on the median of 52 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Washington- area sniper attacks, expectations for declining incomes and job cuts combined to pull down October sentiment.
The index is based on a survey of 5,000 households conducted during the first three weeks of November.
GDP, Home Sales
The U.S. economy grew at a 4 percent annual rate from July through September, faster than the government reported last month and three times the previous quarter's pace, the Commerce Department reported earlier today. In October, new home sales declined 4.5 percent to an annual rate of 1.007 million from a record 1.054 million rate in September, the department said.
Yesterday the Conference Board said a poll of 5,000 households this month suggested that holiday spending this year will rise 5 percent from last year to an average of $483 a household.
The component of the confidence index that tracks consumers' assessment of their present situations rose to 77.6 in November from 77.2 in October. A gauge of consumer expectations for the next six months increased to 88.4 from 81.1.
The share of consumers who said that fewer jobs would become available dropped to 18.9 percent from 22.1 percent. Those expecting incomes to rise six months from now rose to 19 percent from 17.9 percent.
Job Market
For now, consumers see the job market deteriorating, the survey showed. The percentage of consumers who perceived jobs as plentiful dropped to 14.1 in November, the lowest since 13.1 in March 1994, from 14.7 percent last month. The share rating jobs as not so plentiful rose to 58.4 percent from 58 percent.
Plans to buy big-ticket goods have slipped since the start of the year. The share of consumers who say they intend to buy a major appliance in the next six months fell to 27.5 percent from 28.3 percent. The share of consumers planning to buy a home declined to 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent. The percentage planning to by a car dropped to 6.5 percent from 6.9 percent.
The U.S. economy may slow to a 1.6 percent rate of expansion this quarter from a 3.1 percent pace in the third quarter, according to the latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The slowing is expected to reflect a 1.1 percent annual rate of increase in consumer spending that would be the weakest since a 0.8 percent increase in the 1993 first quarter.