20 November 2002, 09:34  Yen May Fall After Central Bank Report Lowers Economic Outlook

Tokyo, Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The yen, little changed, may fall for a sixth day after the Bank of Japan lowered its assessment of the world's second-largest economy in its monthly report for the first time in 11 months. The yen traded at 122.38 to the dollar at 2:46 p.m. in Tokyo, from 122.29 late Tuesday in New York, when it had its biggest fall in eight weeks. It was at 122.62 against the euro, from 122.63.
Japan's central bank cut its economic assessment for the first time since December, saying that a slowdown in the U.S. and elsewhere would reduce exports and industrial production. It said there was ``greater uncertainty'' about the prospects for economic recovery. ``A lower assessment confirms how bleak the outlook is for Japan and will likely push the yen down, especially overseas,'' said Shogo Nagaya, a foreign exchange manager at Nomura Trust & Banking Co. The yen may fall to 123.20 this week, he said. The yen may also fall on concerns bad loans hobbling Japan's banks are going to hamper economic growth by choking off new credit to companies.
Japan's Minister for Financial Services Heizo Takenaka said yesterday he will next week detail his plans outlined on Oct. 30 to accelerate the writing off of some $430 billion in bad loans held by lenders, which analysts say is needed to revive an economy that has had three recessions in the past 10 years. ``Without huge structural reforms, the Japanese market isn't good enough,'' said David Chapman, who helps manage $650 million in global equities for Towry Law Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The yen will probably weaken a bit further, and that's another reason to avoid it. We have a huge underweight position.'' In other trading, the dollar was at $1.0022 against the against the euro, from $1.0024 late yesterday in New York. It was also at 1.4652 Swiss francs, from 1.4647 francs. The British pound was at $1.5791, from $1.5798. //www.quote.bloomberg.com

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