2 August 2002, 15:01  BoE inflation report to dominate economic agenda over coming week

LONDON (AFX) - The latest Bank of England quarterly inflation report on Wednesday will dominate the economic agenda in the coming week though there are a number of data releases that will generate a fair amount interest. The BoE is expected to be more optimistic about the prospects for inflation that it was in the May inflation report, which showed underlying inflation heading above target at the end of the Bank's two-year projection period. The more encouraging outlook is due to a number of factors, such as a lower starting point for RPIX, which excludes mortgage interest payments, and an increase in growth uncertainties. "As such we can expect the August Report to be more sanguine on growth and inflation than its surprisingly hawkish May predecessor," said Deutsche Bank economist Ciaran Barr. "The underlying tone should firmly point to rates being left on hold, in the absence of a further shock to growth." On the data front, economists will be particularly interested in Monday's industrial production and manufacturing output data. These are expected to have gone into reverse in June, following May's export-led surge, partly on lower car production. But David Page, economist at Investec, noted that National Statistics warned that the Jubilee bank holidays created additional seasonal adjustment uncertainty. The uncertain impact of the bank holidays has resulted in a far wider range of forecasts than usual, with some economists even anticipating monthly rises in the data. However, Page is confident the manufacturing sector posted a second quarter revival, though he conceded that the outlook is less clear in light of lower than expected US growth and the recent weakness in both July's CIPS report and the CBI industrial survey. "Unless we see these surveys pick-up in the coming months, dismal demand from overseas could see the sector slip back into a contractionary phase," he said. June trade data on Friday will provide some clear evidence about the state of exports, particularly to the US. "The key here will be whether exports to the US have gone back into reverse," said John Butler, economist at HSBC. In addition, economists will be keen to see the latest CIPS survey into the services sector on Monday, as well as the monthly Halifax housing survey, which is due out early in the week

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