5 July 2002, 13:36  Dollar's Rapid Slide Surprises Tourists, Aids U.S. Exporters

New York, July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Planning ahead, Lars Jolsrud bought dollar travelers checks in April before leaving Norway for a round-the-world trip. Procrastination might have been better. The Norwegian krone soared 18 percent in the past three months and is the world's strongest currency against the dollar this year. ``I would have gotten a much better rate if I had waited until I came to New York to change money,'' said Jolsrud, 32, taking a tourism break by the FAO Schwarz toy store in Manhattan. The dollar's unexpected decline, on the other hand, is what the world's biggest economy needs to help boost earnings at U.S. companies with overseas sales, say executives. The fall ``works to our advantage'' at United Parcel Service Inc., said Gary Barth, assistant treasurer, since 14 percent of the Atlanta-based delivery company's sales last year came from international operations. A sinking dollar raises the value of U.S. companies' earnings in other currencies and makes prices of American-made goods more competitive relative to products of foreign companies. The dollar fell 12 percent against the euro in the last quarter -- its biggest quarterly drop since the European common currency's January 1999 introduction. At 97.84 cents yesterday, the dollar is still 16 percent higher than when the euro made its debut. The decline accelerated as accounting scandals at U.S. companies undermined confidence in corporate earnings, as well as in the U.S. economy.

Goodyear Gains
With U.S. stocks posting their steepest first-half slump in more than three decades, and 10-year Treasury yields near seven- month lows, the U.S. has suddenly lost much of its appeal for foreign investors. Still, the dollar's rapid fall against the euro benefited many U.S. manufacturers. It was one reason Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., North America's largest tire maker, raised its second-quarter profit forecast last month, said spokesman Keith Price. McDonald's Corp., the world's largest restaurant chain, said the weaker dollar helped it snap a six-quarter profit decline. Europe, its second-biggest market, generates about a third of sales. McDonald's reports second-quarter results July 24. The weaker U.S. currency already has reversed a decline in export orders, which last month reached their highest level since March 2000, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday. The fall in exports had cost 750,000 U.S. factory jobs, according to the National Association of Manufacturers in Washington.

`Very Good News'
``A weak dollar would be very good news'' for corporate profits and help spur economic growth, said Robert Delucia, who helps oversee $47 billion at TimesSquare Capital Management Inc. Aside from U.S. multinational companies, the tourist industry should also benefit, as visitors from abroad feel flush with extra cash and boost spending. Spending on travel and tourism will probably account for 4.3 percent of U.S. gross domestic product this year, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council in London. At the 250-room Fitzpatrick Grand Central Hotel in midtown Manhattan, reservations manager Robin Seaver said she hopes the euro's gains produce a 10 percent increase in bookings the next two months. Petter Yderfors, a 24-year old Swede in Times Square, said that with more dollars for his Swedish kronor than expected, he might load up on extra souvenirs. Even though the prospect of cheaper Nike sneakers had Paul van Nuland planning a trip to a mall, the 29-year-old visitor from the Netherlands said the dollar hasn't declined enough. ``Beer is still more expensive,'' he said.

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