30 July 2002, 15:56  Forex - Euro firms in midday London as dollar rally runs out of steam

LONDON (AFX) - The euro firmed in midday trade as the dollar's recent rally on the back of US equity gains ran out of steam, dealers said. "There's been a bit of a mini revival in the euro this morning," 4Cast currency strategist Paul Bednarczyk said. "Basically, the dollar recovery was overdone, and US equity futures today are not pointing to a strong US opening," he said. "The serious money is still looking to buy euros," he said. Credit Agricole Indosuez strategists warned however that euro zone data this week will fail to support the euro. "In this context, any bounce back in the euro above the 0.98 usd level is set to prove shortlived," they said. The strategists took the sharp fall in French business confidence shown in official figures released this morning as confirmation that the economic recovery is faltering. BNP Paribas economist Jean-Marc Lucas too saw the figures as part of a "general decline in European industrial indices in the last two months". Lucas added: "The decline in French business confidence is a further signal that the recovery is much slower to materialise than initially assumed." Dealers said however that the focus will move to this afternoon's US Conference Board consumer confidence indicator for July. The AFX News consensus of economists' forecasts is for consumer confidence to fall to 102.4 from 106.4 in June. In the UK, consumer confidence fell to +2 in July, its lowest level since December 2001, according to the latest GfK survey conducted for the European Commission. Barclays Capital economist David Hillier noted that despite the plunge in equity prices, consumers were more confident about the outlook for their personal finances than in June. 4Cast's Bednarczyk said sterling is currently sidelined as a currency, but predicted that it could fluctuate in the lead-up to Thursday's interest rate announcement by the Bank of England's monetary policy committee. "There's no reason why it shouldn't cut rates this time. Inflation is low and the steam's going out of the housing market," he said. The MPC is widely expected to keep rates at 4.00 pct for the ninth month in a row.

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