12 July 2002, 10:40  Forex - Yen firms to 116.00/usd in midafternoon Tokyo on stock market gains

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The yen rose to the 116.00 level against the dollar in midafternoon trade, its highest level since Sept 21 last year, buoyed by gains in the local stock market, dealers said. Hiroyoshi Kinoshita, a forex trading group deputy manager at Aozora Bank, said fears of intervention by Japanese authorities have eased following mixed comments by Japanese officials on foreign exchange policy. Yesterday, Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami said he expects the fall of the dollar to accelerate globally. "Japanese officials are saying different things about Japan's forex policy. Investors are currently thinking that Japanese authorities are not too serious about stopping the yen's rise," Kinoshita said. "But, I think Japanese authorities are pretty serious about stopping the yen's rise, if you consider the quite large capital used for intervention. In order to stop a rise of the yen, it is necessary for the authorities to show that they are pretty serious about it," Kinoshita said. "Intervention is possible anytime at this level. But, I think the dollar will only rise around 1 yen, and that's it," Kinoshita said. Kinoshita said it is possible the dollar will fall further under current conditions, adding that: "Temporarily, it is possible the dollar will reach 113, or 114 against the yen." "It seems like that some investors are still waiting for large dollar-selling. I think that weak dollar sentiment will continue for the time being," Kinoshita said. Over the next week, investors may turn to buy the US unit for position adjustments, he said, adding that any rebound will likely be pretty limited. He said that he expects the dollar/yen to move in the range of 113.00-118.50 over the next week. On the outlook for the euro, Kinoshita said he expects the unit to soon turn top-heavy, just before reaching parity against the dollar. "It seems like (there is a) large euro-sell order waiting just before reaching parity against the dollar. I think that the euro will turn top-heavy just before the level," Kinoshita said. "However, if the euro reaches parity against the dollar after breaching this technical level, it is possible the euro will continue to rise, as expected stop-loss dollar-selling (kicks in)," he said. He said euro/dollar will move in the range of 0.9700-1.0100 over the coming week. "Because of the weakness of the dollar, the downside of the euro will also be limited," he added.

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