Washington, July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will rebound in the second half of 2002, according to a Blue Chip Economic Indicators forecast that projects consumer spending will accelerate and the dollar will weaken. In final three months of the year, the economy will grow at a 3.7 percent annual rate, according to a survey of 53 economists conducted during the first two days in July. That would follow a 3.3 percent rate of increase in the third quarter and a 2.6 percent pace in the just-ended second quarter. ``The economy is poised to re-accelerate,'' the monthly survey found. The economy will probably expand 2.8 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2003, after growing 1.2 percent in 2001. A pickup in consumer spending and business investment are the main reasons economists in the survey anticipate that growth will accelerate in the second half of the year. Consumer spending will probably rise at a 2.8 percent rate in the third quarter and a 3 percent pace in the fourth. General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. brought back zero- interest financing this month, which may give Americans reason to spend after cutting back on auto purchases in May. Orders for non- defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a gauge of business investment, rose in May for a second straight month, according to a government report that points to increased production in months ahead. Consumption probably slowed to a 2.2 percent rate in the second quarter from a 3.3 rate of increase in the first three months of the year, the survey showed.

Dollar
More than half of the economists surveyed said the dollar is likely to decline by at least 20 percent and stay down for more than a year. Ninety-five percent of economists surveyed said the euro would achieve a one-to-one ratio with the dollar within the next 12 months. The dollar has dropped more than 10 percent against the euro this year and is down almost 12 percent against the yen because investors are selling U.S. stocks and other assets denominated in dollars. Companies such as WorldCom Inc. and Xerox Corp. have disclosed inflating earnings or prematurely accounting for revenue, calling into question the reliability of corporate balance sheets. The euro rose as high as 99.88 cents in intraday trading June 28, and was 99.40 cents today. The euro was last worth more than a dollar in February 2000. It sank below 84 cents in July 2001. A third of the economists surveyed agreed that ``returns from U.S. financial assets will likely average in the low single digits during the next decade, far below historical levels.'' Two-thirds disagreed.

Watching the Fed
The economists in the survey are counting on Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his fellow policy makers to give the economy a boost by leaving the overnight bank loan rate at 1.75 percent until their Nov. 6 meeting. By the end of the year, the central bank will probably raise the overnight rate by a half percentage point, judging from the Blue Chip consensus estimate. The overnight rate has been at 1.75 percent since December, the lowest over any seven-month period since June-December 1958. The job market will improve more slowly than the economy, according to the forecast. Unemployment will average 5.9 percent through September before falling to 5.8 percent in the final three months of the year. ``However, claims the U.S. will suffer another `jobless recovery' reminiscent of the expansion following the 1990-1991 recession are at a minimum premature,'' the survey found. During the first 15 months of expansion after the last recession, the jobless rate kept rising to a peak of 7.8 percent in June 1992.

Second Quarter Slower
The latest Blue Chip survey forecasts less growth in the second and third quarters than was expected in June. The prior survey had expected a 2.9 percent rate of expansion in the quarter that just ended, higher than the 2.6 percent pace in this month's consensus. Some economists may have grown more pessimistic in recent days. A report released last Friday showed that the unemployment rate rose to 5.9 percent in June as the economy created half as many jobs as expected. Payrolls increased by 24,000 in May, less than the 41,000 previously thought. For the year as a whole, and for next year, the growth forecast hasn't changed. Inflation will probably remain subdued. The consumer price index will probably rise 1.7 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2003, the survey found. Consumer prices rose 1.6 percent last year, matching the increase in 1998 and the smallest since 1986.