10 July 2002, 09:26 Forex - Euro/dollar consolidates in midafternoon Tokyo ahead of parity
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The euro/dollar consolidated in a technically driven
pull-back from levels close to parity reached overnight, with some funds
shifting to the yen, despite continued intervention threats, dealers said.
"The move is technical, rather than fundamental, ahead of parity," Hideki
Naito, managing analyst at Standard & Poor's MMS, said. The euro hit a high of
99.52 cents in offshore trading last night.
"We almost reached parity so there's only so much to go," Naito said.
Short-term speculators have shifted attention to the yen, which has
underperformed the euro's sharp rise against the dollar due to the threat of
intervention by the Bank of Japan, he added.
"There are some flows from the euro into the yen ... and also (Finance
Minister Masajuro) Shiokawa's comments, mentioning a particular level of 115
yen, were in line with the market view," he said.
However, the threat of action in the market by Japanese authorities
maintained the dollar's downside against the yen. "That's why this morning the
majority of traders are cautious," Naito said.
Intervention by the BoJ will be more effective if long-yen positions build
up, though at present these remain modest, while the bank may also try to defend
technical support just below 118 yen, he said.
"Even if the BoJ stepped in the market, it would only lift the dollar by
about 50 points. Everyone's waiting for the intervention," Naito said, adding
that speculative accounts are also likely to unwind positions for the holidays.
"Maybe spec traders want to close out positions ahead of the summer
vacation. They would prefer to reduce outstanding positions," he said.
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