7 June 2002, 08:59 Forex - Yen little changed midmorning Tokyo; limited impact from Japan Q1 GDP
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The yen was little changed in midmorning Tokyo, with only
limited impact from the release of Japan's first quarter to March GDP, showing
growth of 1.4 pct over the previous quarter, dealers said.
March quarter GDP rose an annualised 5.7 pct.
The forex market saw little reaction from the data, though the headline
figure was towards the upper end of a revised range of forecasts, given the
deflation of earlier much higher expectations, dealers said.
Private-sector economists cut their GDP forecasts this week to a range of
around 1.0-1.5 pct quarter-on-quarter, after Ministry of Finance capital
spending data came in below expectations.
The GDP forecasts had previously ranged as high as 2.5 pct on optimism over
a boost for capital spending.
"It was almost in line with our expectations. It's not bad compared with the
consensus but worse than the previous expectation so there's not much reaction,"
said Hidehiko Inamura, vice president at Citibank.
At 10.10 am, the yen was trading at 124.17 to the dollar, compared with
124.07 just before the announcement, and at 117.52 against the euro, from
117.46. The June bond futures contract was up 0.09 at 139.15.
The dollar dropped against the euro, which had fallen back from a new
year-high of 0.9471 overnight on US stockmarket and terrorist fears, but the US
unit was supported against the yen by the threat of Bank of Japan intervention.
Finance Ministry director-general Zenbei Mizoguchi said this morning that
the ministry's stance on the foreign exchange markets will not change after the
release of the first quarter GDP data.
"Even with the first quarter GDP outcome, our stance on the forex markets
will not change. That means we will continue to carefully monitor the markets,"
Mizoguchi said at the ministry.
He added that the authorities "believe that the US is maintaining the
strength of its economy" relative to Japan and the EU.
"The US dollar hit its weakest point against the euro. Because of the BoJ,
people looking at the euro/dollar. There's still negative sentiment on the
dollar," said Citibank's Inamura.
The foreign inflows to Japanese stockmarkets have also waned, helping to
reduce downward pressure on the dollar/yen, he said.
"If the market realises that Japanese stocks won't do well, the yen will be
sold gradually in the medium-term," he said.
"US equity funds have started to take profit and so the recent yen
appreciation trend may stop. The 123.50 may be the top," Inamura said, adding
though that hedging of euro by Japanese exporters may cap the dollar's upside.
"We hear that Japanese exporters are hedging in euro/yen. They want to sell
at 117.50 because the euro/dollar's going higher so this may cap the dollar/yen
... at maybe 125 to 126 yen," Inamura said.
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