7 June 2002, 08:59  Forex - Yen little changed midmorning Tokyo; limited impact from Japan Q1 GDP

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The yen was little changed in midmorning Tokyo, with only limited impact from the release of Japan's first quarter to March GDP, showing growth of 1.4 pct over the previous quarter, dealers said. March quarter GDP rose an annualised 5.7 pct. The forex market saw little reaction from the data, though the headline figure was towards the upper end of a revised range of forecasts, given the deflation of earlier much higher expectations, dealers said. Private-sector economists cut their GDP forecasts this week to a range of around 1.0-1.5 pct quarter-on-quarter, after Ministry of Finance capital spending data came in below expectations. The GDP forecasts had previously ranged as high as 2.5 pct on optimism over a boost for capital spending. "It was almost in line with our expectations. It's not bad compared with the consensus but worse than the previous expectation so there's not much reaction," said Hidehiko Inamura, vice president at Citibank. At 10.10 am, the yen was trading at 124.17 to the dollar, compared with 124.07 just before the announcement, and at 117.52 against the euro, from 117.46. The June bond futures contract was up 0.09 at 139.15. The dollar dropped against the euro, which had fallen back from a new year-high of 0.9471 overnight on US stockmarket and terrorist fears, but the US unit was supported against the yen by the threat of Bank of Japan intervention. Finance Ministry director-general Zenbei Mizoguchi said this morning that the ministry's stance on the foreign exchange markets will not change after the release of the first quarter GDP data. "Even with the first quarter GDP outcome, our stance on the forex markets will not change. That means we will continue to carefully monitor the markets," Mizoguchi said at the ministry. He added that the authorities "believe that the US is maintaining the strength of its economy" relative to Japan and the EU. "The US dollar hit its weakest point against the euro. Because of the BoJ, people looking at the euro/dollar. There's still negative sentiment on the dollar," said Citibank's Inamura. The foreign inflows to Japanese stockmarkets have also waned, helping to reduce downward pressure on the dollar/yen, he said. "If the market realises that Japanese stocks won't do well, the yen will be sold gradually in the medium-term," he said. "US equity funds have started to take profit and so the recent yen appreciation trend may stop. The 123.50 may be the top," Inamura said, adding though that hedging of euro by Japanese exporters may cap the dollar's upside. "We hear that Japanese exporters are hedging in euro/yen. They want to sell at 117.50 because the euro/dollar's going higher so this may cap the dollar/yen ... at maybe 125 to 126 yen," Inamura said.

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