7 June 2002, 08:59 DATAWATCH - Japan Q1 GDP above forecast, consumption questionable - JP Morgan
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Ryo Hino, economist at JP Morgan Chase, said the first
quarter GDP growth of 1.4 pct over the fourth was a little stronger than his
expectations.
However, he added that the strong private consumption number in the release
is statistically questionable and unlikely to represent the real fundamentals.
Private consumption rose 1.6 pct from the previous quarter.
"It is a little bit stronger than we had expected. The private consumption
figure did turn out to be a bit stronger but I don't think it represents the
economic fundamentals," Hino said.
"Consumer demand is still fairly weak. The GDP data is distorted by
questionable (calculations).
"The important thing going forward is that a strong figure in the first
quarter will mean a rebound in the second quarter. I am not arguing the economy
is not growing but the pace is clearly (exagerated by the data)," he said.
"I think the export figure is the one part in the GDP data that refers to
what is really going on and we are clearly seeing a recovery in exports," he
added.
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