6 June 2002, 08:50  Forex - Dollar/yen stable in midmorning Tokyo ahead of Japan GDP

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar/yen was stable midmorning ahead of tomorrow's Japanese GDP data, after forecasts were lowered on yesterday's weak capex numbers, and with more positive US economic data overnight, dealers said. Japanese stocks also failed to capitalise on a stronger Wall Street. "There was a peak of US bearishness and a peak of Japanese bullishness. The US data is stronger and the Japanese is weaker and this is being reflected in a stable market," said Toru Umemoto, forex strategist at Morgan Stanley. Private-sector forecasts for Japanese first quarter GDP growth, to be released tomorrow, have been cut towards the 1.0 pct mark, from around 1.7 pct, after yesterday's release of weaker-than-expected capex data. "If the Japanese GDP is weaker than expected, it will be yen negative. Even if it's stronger there will be concerns over the reliability of the data," Umemoto said, though adding it may take some time for the dollar to recover. "Negative sentiment is being corrected but it's gradual. I expect to see 126 yen in a week's time," he said. Umemoto noted a sharp fall off, of around 300-400 bln yen, in the inflows into the Japanese equity market shown in this morning's Ministry of Finance fund flow figures, compared with recent weeks. "Investors are not at all optimistic about the Japanese market. They were forced to correct their underweight positions. That's why foreigners were steady buyers," he said. He added the dollar will get a boost, probably in June, from investment in overseas assets by Japanese investors, as well as foreign companies, who will buy dollar/yen for hedging purposes before the first half of the calendar. The dollar faces resistance at 124.50-125.00 yen, followed by 126.00 yen, with downside support at 123.50 yen, where the finance ministry is expected to continue to intervene, Umemoto said.

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