ZURICH (AFX) - Swiss first quarter GDP growth is set today to come in between a drop of 0.3 pct to growth of 0.2 pct, analysts said. Compared to the fourth quarter, GDP is expected to have risen an annualised and seasonally adjusted 0.3-1.1 pct, they said.
"Swiss (GDP) growth is at the lower end of the European range... not particularly due to the strong Swiss franc but because of the global recession," said Pictet analyst Bernard Lambert. That is because the pick-up of Switzerland's main trading partners like Germany is moderate, he said.
Lambert sees the first quarter annualised and seasonally adjusted GDP up 0.4 pct from the fourth quarter of 2001, but a year-on-year GDP decline of 0.3 pct. Julius Baer analyst JanWillem Ackett, who sees GDP 0.6 pct higher against the fourth quarter and up 0.2 pct year-on-year, said the early Easter spurred first quarter retail sales, which positively influenced the first quarter GDP. First quarter retail sales were up 2.7 pct year-on-year in real terms, spurred by higher food, drink and clothing sales. The fact that first quarter employment in the tertiary or services sector rose by 0.3 pct to 2.6 mln people is another positive factor, compensating for the 1.7 pct fall in the secondary or industrial sector employment to 1 mln people, Ackett said.
Lombard Odier analyst Fabio Alessandrini foresees a 0.3 pct GDP growth against the fourth quarter and a zero year-on-year growth. Swiss first quarter export and capital spending figures could be a bad surprise, he warned. "It seems that the (Swiss) downturn bottomed out in the fourth quarter, with the slight (first quarter) recovery spurred by consumer spending. Other GDP components remain weak," Alessandrani said. Swiss growth is set to stagnate in the first half of the year, before moderately picking up in the second half, Lambert said. Swiss full year GDP growth could reach up to 1 pct, depending on the strength of the first quarter figure, and 2003's 2.4 pct, Alessandrini said. The KOF/ETH Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research foresees the annualised and seasonally adjusted GDP up 1.1 pct from the fourth quarter.