3 June 2002, 09:46  Forex - Dollar/yen little changed in midafternoon Tokyo on intervention fears

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar/yen was little changed in midafternoon trade, as investors continued to be cautious due to the threat of intervention by Japanese authorities, dealers said. A dealer at a Japanese trust bank said following intervention last Friday by Japanese authorities in the overseas market, the yen will likely trade in a weaker tone against the dollar this week. "I think after the intervention Friday, the dollar/yen has entered a correction phase. I think the yen will trade in a weaker tone against the dollar this week," the dealer said, adding that the dollar/yen may reach the 125.00 level this week. "In addition, exporters are generally absent as sellers of the dollar against the yen in the beginning of each month," he added. However, in the long term the yen will continue to trade firmer against the dollar due to continued interest by foreign investors in Japanese equities, he said. "I expect that capital flow from foreign investors into Japanese assets will continue for the time being. I don't expect that the yen-buying is finished yet," he said. Over the long-term the yen will gradually appreciate against the dollar, which makes it more difficult for Japanese authorities to step into the market, he said, adding that a positive GDP figure may also support the yen. "As (Finance Minister Masajuro) Shiokawa has previously said the GDP figure is not that good, the forex market is (not expecting a strong number). But if the figure comes in better than expected, it is possible that the yen will rise," he said. He said he expects the yen to strengthen by around 0.10 yen against the dollar if the first-quarter GDP figure comes in at a growth of around 7-8 pct on an annualised basis. Japan's first-quarter GDP data will be announced June 7. He said he sees the dollar/yen moving in a range of 123.80-125.20 this week. The euro was rangebound against other major currencies in cautious trade and a lack of leads ahead of the European Central Bank governing council meeting on Thursday, he said. The dealer said he expects the ECB to hold its key rate unchanged at the meeting, adding that the euro/dollar will likely move in a range of 0.9250-0.9450 during the week.

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