26 June 2002, 09:47 Forex - Dollar/yen firms in midafternoon Tokyo after MoF intervention
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar/yen was firmer in midafternoon after the
Ministry of Finance ordered intervention in the market to prevent a further
weakening of the dollar, dealers said.
"We have just taken action in the market," said a ministry official
official, who declined to be named, confirming the intervention.
The move was taken as the dollar dipped to as low as 120.10 yen, with the US
currency then rising to around 120.95 but thereafter quickly falling back.
However, dealers said the Bank of Japan, on behalf of the ministry, will
likely have to take repeated action to prevent a further dollar depreciation.
"My feeling is there's a high probability of market intervention in European
market time," said Koji Fukaya, chief foreign exchange analyst Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
Fukaya said trade and current account related flows as well as portfolio
flows away from the US, given uncertainty over the financial markets there, are
combining to put the dollar under pressure.
"I think the MoF will have to continuously intervene in the market as
there's still the huge current account ... and there's no one looking to
(invest) on a global basis. Japanese investors are very risk averse," he said.
"If they don't move, the yen will appreciate against the dollar. It's
difficult to push up the dollar/yen against a general dollar depreciation. I
think they will move at 120 lows or below 120 yen."
Remarks by US President George Bush this morning, interpreted as a tacit
acceptance of dollar weakness, put further downward pressure on the currency.
"My position is that the dollar will seek its level based upon market
forces," Bush said at a news conference in Calgary ahead of the G8 summit.
"The market believed that that comment showed that they accept the dollar
depreciation so participants are not afraid of US action," Fukaya said.
The euro has also risen sharply against the dollar, triggered by news
WorldCom Inc will restate its financial statements due to improper accounting.
WorldCom said transfers from line cost expenses to capital accounts were not
in accordance with GAAP and estimated the improper transfers at 3.055 bln usd
for 2001 and 797 mln usd in the first quarter of 2002.
The company's reported EBITDA would be reduced to 6.339 bln usd for 2001 and
1.368 bln usd for the first quarter of 2002, and the company would have reported
a net loss for 2001 and for the first quarter of 2002, it said.
The news provided an excuse to sell down an already weak US currency.
"The Japanese investors missed their chance to buy euro. WorldCom was ...
used as an excuse to buy," said Hidehiko Inamura, foreign exchange vice
president at Citibank.
"We still believe the current sentiment against the US economy is extreme
but only the BoJ is supporting the dollar. No (Japanese) investors, including
pension money, are going abroad. Japanese corporates are neutral," he said.
However, participants noted that in the longer term the Japanese economy
will be badly hit by a more substantial downturn in the US.
"In the longer term there is a risk of Japanese economic downside as it
effects the exporter profits," BoTM's Fukaya said.
"If the US deteriorates towards the end of the year, then that may affect
the yen through the Japanese exporters. The economy will confront difficulties
towards the end of the year."
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