31 May 2002, 09:05 Forex - Yen stable against the dollar after Moody's rating downgrade
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The yen fell and then recovered losses against the dollar
after Moody's Investors Service announced it has cut its sovereign debt rating
for Japan to A2 from AA3, dealers said.
"The rating action had some 0.5 yen impact on the yen, but most of the
impact has waned by now," said Takashi Toyohara, foreign exchange manager at
Nomura Securities Co Ltd.
"Everybody has already become bored of this topic."
Toyohara noted that most foreign investors appeared to have already adjusted
their holdings of Japanese bonds and so the official announcement by Moody's of
the rating downgrade is unlikely to trigger fresh selling of Japanese government
bonds or the yen.
Toshikazu Shimamura, foreign exchange manager at North Pacific Bank,
however, said the rating action may have some adverse impact on yen sentiment
among longer term investors.
"The very fact that the rating on Japan is now in the single A bracket is
quite shocking, and may discourage foreign investors from investing in Japan,"
he said.
"In the near-term, Japanese investors are likely to remain willing to buy
any portion of bonds to be sold by foreign investors."
Dealers said the dollar is expected to maintain a weakening bias in the
near-term due to widespread concerns regarding the performance of the US economy
and capital markets.
"Unless pessimism over the US is fully dispelled, the dollar is not likely
to be able to attract strong enough buying interest to absorb selling pressure
by Japanese exporters," Shiamamura said.
"Japanese exporters seem to be lowering the targeted level for selling the
dollar because of its extremely top-heavy performance of late."
Nomura's Toyohara said technical factors suggest the market is now looking
at the 122.50 yen level as the next downside target for the dollar, adding that
"if this level is broken, the currency may be pushed to around or below the 120
yen level".
North Pacific's Shimamura said receding fears Japanese authorities will
intervene directly in the market could put additional downward pressure on the
dollar.
"As long as there are substantial (dollar) selling orders from exporters,
any intervention is not likely to have a strong impact and it seems the
authority is well aware of such supply and demand conditions," Shimamura said.
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